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We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.
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Table of Contents
What is the Luca Doncic 2018 Prizm Mojo PSA 10?
This is one of about 25 parallels Panini ran for the 2018 set. The Mojo variant was limited to a print run of only 25, of which nine are PSA 10
There are another 10 or so BGS 9.5 versions of this card.
Annoyingly, this is another case of BGS cards + PSA cards = more than the print run. There are 30 total between the two grading firms, which means at least five cards were submitted, cracked, and resubmitted hoping for a better grade. It’s impossible to know which those were, so take the population report with a slight grain of salt.
It IPOs on Otis 8th March.
Cultural Relevance
Collectable IPO’ed a different parallel of this card a couple weeks ago, and we covered this there. If you’d like a refresher, please click here.
Points – 8/10
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
This card last traded January 2020 for $13,450, so we need to look at comparable cards to infer a value.
Using the much more widely-traded Silver Prizm parallel as a comp to estimate growth over the last fourteen months, we can arrive at an inferred value of [Insiders Only].
These are the three sales data points we’ve used:
- Sale #1: $13,450 (1/15/2020)
- Sale #2: $2,574 (5/17/2019)
- Sale #3: $12,000 (12/18/2019)
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
The basketball cards subcategory has returned [Insiders Only] ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Risk Profile
Standard deviation for all basketball cards transactions has been [Insiders Only], which is relatively [Insiders Only]. Lower is better.
Recent Growth Trend
This card has appreciated around [Insiders Only] over the last twelve months.
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Modern NBA cards have flattened out, and they’re starting to separate out the potential Tier 1 players (Labron-esque) from the merely very very good (Pippen). It’s yet to be seen which Doncic is, but his cards have recovered where others haven’t. (his silver prizm below)
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade daily.
Platform Risk
Otis is [Insiders Only] transparent
Intangibles
This is a super rare card for a very very good player.
What is the Dwyane Wade 2003 Ultimate Collection Autograph BGS 10 Black Label?
The first thing to understand about this card is that it’s a black label BGS 10. That means all four subgrades are 10/10, which is exceptionally rare. They typically command a significant premium to standard BGS 10 cards (more on that below).
The card itself is a limited run /250 autograph from Dwyane Wade’s rookie season of 2003 – 2004.
It IPOs on Collectable 8th March.
Cultural Relevance
Dwyane Wade was somewhat unfortunate to be a member of the 2003 NBA draft, because he was never going to be the best player drafted this year thanks to Lebron James.
That said, he’s widely considered either the second or third best player to come out of that draft depending on how you measure these things. Carmelo Anthony finished his career with more points and rebounds than Wade, but Wade had a significantly higher Value over Replacement Player and more assists. After Lebron and these two, it’s Chris Bosh then everyone else that year is miles away. Remember Darko Milicic? He was drafted above all Anthony, Wade, and Bosh. Remember him? Me neither.
That’s all well-reflected in search history over the last fourteen years
Wade was a very very good player:
- 1 Olympic Bronze Medal
- 3 All-Defensive Team
- 8 All-NBA
- 1 All-Rookie Team
- 1 NBA All-Star Most Valuable Player
- 1 NBA Finals Most Valuable Player
- 6 NBA Player of the Month
- 18 NBA Player of the Week
- 1 Olympic Gold Medal
He’s still very relevant as well, which is quite impressive.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
This was another MF’er to value, because BGS Black Label cards are so rare. In fact, this is the only Black Label version of this card out of all 250 copies.
So we need to figure out what a normal BGS 10 card is worth then figure out what sort of premium to assign a Black Label version.
A standard BGS 10 sold for $12,500 in January 2021, so that’s where we start.
To figure out a sensible Black Label Premium, I’ve looked at four other sort of similar cards that have sold both a Black Label and a standard BGS 10 in the last several weeks.
The variance here is huge, so we’re not going to establish an exact inferred value, but based on the average multiple of [Insiders Only], we get an inferred value of [Insiders Only] for this card.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
The basketball cards subcategory has returned [Insiders Only] ROI so far across the entire portfolio
Risk Profile
Standard deviation for all basketball cards transactions has been [Insiders Only], which is relatively [Insiders Only]. Lower is better.
Recent Growth Trend
The standard BGS 10 version of this card has appreciated [Insiders Only] in the last twelve months.
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Wade is a solid tier 1 player who will continue to hold value.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade weekly.
Platform Risk
Collectable is [Insiders Only] transparent and well-capitalised.
Intangibles
It’s really annoying that he spells his name with the y in the wrong place.
What is the 1985 Nike Promo Michael Jordan PSA 10?
One of the earliest Michael Jordan cards printed, this predates the iconic 1986 Fleer set that gets all the attention. Nike produced this promo set, which contained other signed stars like Jon McEnroe and Dwight Gooden. Many prefer this card to the 1986 version, because it’s quite a cool looking shot.
It IPOs on Rally 8th March.
Cultural Relevance
Michael Jordan + Nike.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
This card strengthened as people were no longer able to afford the 1986 Fleer card and started looking for alternatives. As the 1986 card has faltered, though, so to has the Nike promo.
The most recent sale was via Heritage auctions on [Insiders Only] for [Insiders Only], which places it [Insiders Only] the market cap.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
The basketball cards subcategory has returned [Insiders Only] ROI so far across the entire portfolio
Risk Profile
Standard deviation for all NBA basketball transactions has been [Insiders Only], which is relatively [Insiders Only]. Lower is better.
Recent Growth Trend
Like all Michael Jordan cards, this one has appreciated bigly in the last twelve months, up over [Insiders Only]%.
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
There’s been a consolidation of MJ profits lately while the rest of the industry catches up. It’s a great store of wealth and will grow again (probably), but it won’t 13x again anytime soon.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade quarterly
Platform Risk
Otis is [Insiders Only] transparent and well-capitalised.
Intangibles
A lot of people like this card. Not me though.
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