Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Wholesale Inflation Is Rising Again
- Real Estate: Florida Might Stop Collecting Property Tax
- Startups: Spain’s Ecosystem Is Heating Up
- Private Credit: Lots of Insider Selling at Apollo
- Crypto: Aave Is Still Dominant
- NFTs: Pudgy Penguins Catch Up To BAYC
- Art: Get A Michelangelo for Under $10,000
- Vintage Autos: Buy Joe Biden’s Old Cadillac?
- Coins: Massive Discovery of Battle of Hastings Coins
- Farmland: Watch Ukraine’s EU Accession Closely
- Luxury: Saks’ Behemoth New Flagship
- Wine and Spirits: Snoop Dogg Launches Gin & Juice
- Film & Music: Rod Stewart’s Catalog Sells for $10 Million
- Precious Metals: Gold Fell Below $2,000
- Collectibles: Hotel Bathrobes Gain Traction
- Websites: A $65,000 Domain Sales
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- The S&P 500 ​rose for the fifth consecutive week​, up 1.28%.
- Global fund managers are the ​most optimistic they’ve been in two years​.
- The IMF is ​confident​ in a global economic soft landing.
- Inflation in the EU is projected to ​drop to 3.0% in 2024​, from 6.3% in 2023.
- Despite lower consumer spending, retailers like Walmart and Sephora ​are still expanding​ their physical locations.
Bearish News
- India’s tech sector ​growth halved​ to 3.8% in FY24, with a 3.3% drop in software exports.
- Russia’s economy faces ​major hurdles​ from a skilled worker exodus and tech restrictions.
- Post-Brexit, the UK’s economy is ​5% smaller​, lagging behind its peers.
- In China, ​labor protests surged​, tripling in Q4 2023 amid economic deceleration.
- Japan’s GDP ​fell to fourth​ globally, entering a recession with a 0.4% contraction in Q4 2023.
- US ​retail sales fell​ 0.8% in January, the largest decline in 10 months.
- January’s ​wholesale inflation​ saw the biggest rise since August.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using ​this link​.
What are we doing?
​ALTS 1​ Fund news:
No news here
Real Estate
Bullish News
- In January, Houston’s housing market ​witnessed a 9% increase​ in single-family home sales, its second annual gain since 2021.
- San Diego’s life science real estate sector is experiencing ​rising leasing activity​.
- Florida is ​debating the removal​ of property taxes, considering a shift to a consumption tax.
- Shurgard acquired Pickens Self-Storage in Germany ​for €120 million​.
- Homebuilder confidence ​reached a peak​ not seen since August 2023.
Bearish News
- Q4 2023 saw a 25% ​​drop in mortgage originations​​ for commercial and multifamily properties.
- US office buildings could see ​​prices drop by 30%​​, driven by the ongoing shift to remote work and a $2 trillion debt challenge.
- Swedish real estate developer Bonava’s shares ​plummeted by 50% in 2023​​.
- Boston might face a ​​$1.5 billion shortfall​​ in commercial property tax revenue by 2029.
- The industrial sector’s ​​vacancy rates rose to 5.7%​​ during 2023, a 230 basis point increase.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Boston might need to find some new revenue streams.
Startups
Bullish News
- B2B marketplaces hit a ​record $6.3 billion funding​ in 2023.
- Madrid’s startups saw a ​record 249 investment rounds​ in 2023, raising €1.2 billion, a 9% increase from the previous year.
- Techstars ​initiated a three-month program​ in Tokyo.
- Nearly $800 million has been ​invested in gig economy startups​ in the past 2 years.
- Dating startups ​are still raising major rounds​.
- ​Water scarcity and purification startups​ saw increased funding in 2023.
Bearish News
- Funding for ​​African HealthTech startups​​ fell 2% in 2023, amidst a 39% overall drop in Africa’s tech funding.
- Barclays cut Rivian’s price target by 43.75%, citing ​​demand and profitability issues​​.
- Oyo is backing out of ​IPO plans​​.
- Late-stage startups saw their ​​valuation growth hit​​ the slowest rate since 2016, with a 61.6% drop in median valuation increases.
- Coatue Management completely ​​exited its position​​ in Lucid Motors.
- Instacart cut ​​250 jobs​​ and had three C-suite executives leave.
How to invest in startups right now:
Reconsider your EV positions.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Middle-market PE firms are ​becoming acquisition targets​.
- Family offices ​increased allocations​ to alternatives to 52% from 50% in 2020.
- Lower middle-market firms ​succeeded in fundraising​ in 2023.
- Stone Point and General Atlantic ​raised their offer​ for HireRight to $1.65 billion.
- PE deals ​are set to accelerate​ in 2024 with $2.3 trillion in dry powder.
- Warburg Pincus ​wants to raise $2.5 billion​ for its new financial sector fund.
- Tony Robbins ​praised PE​ for its potential 20-30% returns.
Bearish News
- Skilled nursing ​​transactions hit​ a post-pandemic low in 2023.
- ​Blackstone / GSO Long-Short Credit Income Fund​ saw a 12% increase in short interest in January.
- ​Cash returns​ to PE investors hit a 15-year low.
- Only four ​deals were made​ in Medicare Advantage by PE in 2023.
- JPMorgan and State Street ​left the Climate Action 100 group​.
- In the past year, there has been only 1 insider buy at ​Apollo Global Management​, despite 18 insider sells.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Fundraise from family offices and focus on smaller deals.
Crypto
Here’s what you need to know:
Bullish News
- Bitcoin ​surpassed $52,000​, and the total crypto market cap hit a 26-month high.
- Solana’s SOL ​recorded $1.7 billion​ in futures bets and a 15% price rise in two weeks.
- An Ethereum whale ​bought 39,900 ETH​, valued at $99.5 million.
- ​Attacks on Bitcoin and Ethereum​ are now economically unfeasible.
- Aave has maintained over ​50% market share for 3 years​.
- Chainlink (LINK) ​hit a 1-year high​ of $20.85.
- Crypto money laundering ​dropped by 30%​ in 2023.
- Digital Currency Group’s Q4 revenue ​increased by 59%​ to $210 million.
Bearish News
- Grayscale and Digital Currency Group ​​rejected plans​​ to liquidate $1.6 billion in trust shares.
- The ​​Crypto Fear & Greed Index​​ hit “extreme greed.”
- Jupiter Asset Management ​​pulled its investment​​ from Ripple XRP ETP over regulatory worries.
- Chainlink saw a ​​$130 million sell-off​​ by whales.
- The Blockchain Association warned that Senator Warren’s crypto bill could ​​push the industry abroad​​.
- The “Binance Trust Wallet” iOS app is ​​under scrutiny​​ for a flaw that led to financial losses by allowing security mnemonic guesses.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Change your Binance password.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Sotheby’s Bitcoin ordinals auction ​​garnered over $1.09 million​.
- Pudgy Penguins ​approached parity​ with Bored Ape Yacht Club.
- Ethereum’s NFT market ​hit $158 million​ in weekly sales, its highest since February 2023.
- Tensor ​captured 77%​ of the Solana NFT market.
- An EtherRock ​sold for 279 ETH​ ($739,015).
- Fischer Sports ​introduced an NFT ski package​.
- Afronifty became ​Africa’s top NFT marketplace​, with a 420% increase in NFT mints in 2023.
Bearish News
- The ​​ERC-404 token standard dipped​ in price as DN-404, a more efficient version, is set to launch.
- Pandora and DeFrogs ​​saw major losses​.
- Insider trading suspicions arose around ​​Moonbirds NFT sales spiking​ just before Yuga Labs’ acquisition news.
- YouTuber KSI is under fire for ​market manipulation concerns​.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Play around on Tensor.
Artwork
Bullish News
- The ​ARTEX Stock Exchange​ debuted featuring Francis Bacon’s ‘Three Studies for Portrait of George Dyer’ in their launch.
- A ​Michelangelo drawing​ is up for grabs at Christie’s for $6,000-$8,000.
- Gustav Klimt’s “Portrait of Fraulein Lieser” ​is up for auction​, expected to reach up to $54 million.
- The Musée d’Orsay’s ​Van Gogh exhibition​ attracted a record 793,556 visitors with its virtual reality feature.
- The Art Institute of Chicago ​received a $25 million donation​ from the Bucksbaum family.
- French gallery Ceysson & Bénétière ​opened a new location in Tokyo​.
Bearish News
- Chicago’s Museum of Contemporary Art staff ​​initiated a union campaign​​.
- Emmanuel Perrotin ​​ceased operations​​ in Paris and Dubai.
- Simon Lee Gallery’s shutdown left ​​153 creditors​​ owed $12.6 million.
- A Banksy artwork in Peckham, worth up to £500,000, ​was stolen​.
- The Portland Museum of Art ​​eliminated 13 jobs​​ after a 35% visitation drop since 2020.
- Australian gallerist Tove Langridge was ​​charged with nine thefts​​, facing up to five years in prison for unauthorized art sales.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
We have a bit of space left in our ​Frank Auerbach opportunity​.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Banksy’s “Crazy Horse” artwork, featuring a car door, is ​expected to fetch $200,000​ at auction.
- The ​Chevrolet Corvette Z06 (2001–2004)​ has increased in value by 24% since 2022.
- A New Hampshire property, listed at $399,900, comes with ​over 300 classic cars​. Some are in better shape than others.
- A 2003 Acura NSX-T, rare in its configuration, ​sold for $95,700​ at Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale.
- Thailand’s ​classic car culture​ is thriving.
- A vintage Ferrari V12 engine dynamometer is up for ​auction without reserve​ in Florida, estimated between $125,000 and $175,000.
- President Biden’s 2018 Cadillac ATS-V ​is up for auction​, with bids nearing $30,000.
Bearish News
- Several high-value classic cars ​​failed to sell​​ at Paris auctions, missing their reserve prices by over €1 million.
- Aston Martin faces a ​​$1.4 billion debt crisis​​.
- The US ​​detained thousands of luxury cars​​, including Audis, due to parts from forced labor in China.
- Adrian’s First Fridays ​​scaled back car shows​​, replacing them with carnival games.
- The ​​Mullin Automotive Museum​​ in Oxnard closed after its founder’s death, ending its showcase of Art Deco-era French cars.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Develop an appreciation for early 2000’s Corvettes.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Archaeologists in Bulgaria found a ​​rare medallion​​ of Emperor Caracalla.
- A newly discovered hoard of coins from the Battle of Hastings is ​expected to sell for £200,000​.
- The ​​Ronald A. Slovick Family Collection​​ of Indian Peace Medals will be auctioned by Stack’s Bowers Galleries, featuring a sought-after 1795 George Washington medal.
- The ​Central States Numismatic Society​ will debut its State Showcase at the 2024 convention, featuring Iowa with 3,000 ANACS-certified state quarters for attendees.
Bearish News
- ​​Dominion’s Grading Service​ closed.
- Investors keep ​overpaying​ for “conditionally rare” modern coins, misled by population reports.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Study up on Bulgarian history 🇧🇬
Farmland
Bullish News
- Source Agriculture ​​wants to raise $75 million​ to become the largest US farmland investment entity focused on vegan-friendly projects.
- A piece of north Norfolk farmland ​​sold for £75,000 per acre​.
- New Jersey’s agricultural sector ​​added 115 new farms​, with sales nearing $1.5 billion.
- Murray Wise Associates (MWA) ​​expanded its farmland management​ portfolio to over 40,000 acres across 10 states.
- Hemp is now ​​included in the USDA Census​.
Bearish News
- Wisconsin’s dairy farms saw a ​​30% drop​​ since 2017.
- Farm loan interest expenses ​​jumped 43%​​ from 2022 to 2023.
- ​​One in ten Idaho farms closed​​ between 2017 and 2022.
- Farm consolidation in the US is leading to ​​less diversity​​ in food production.
- Operational costs for farmers will ​​rise by 34%​​ because of Net-Zero Climate-Control policies.
- New York reported a loss of 364,000 acres and 2,800 farms in five years, the ​​biggest decline​​ in 30 years.
- Ukraine’s EU accession could lead to a ​​20% cut in subsidies​​ for current EU member states.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Pay attention to Net-Zero Climate-Control policies.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- JIMMY CHOO launched a ​Crystal Slipper​ featuring 12,938 Swarovski crystals.
- Saks Fifth Avenue’s Beverly Hills flagship ​reopened after a $52 million renovation​.
- Growth in the ​luxury eyewear market​ is expected this year, driven by online sales.
- Luxury brands increased their Out-of-Home (OOH) advertising ​spending by 27%​ in 2023.
- Swiss startup ID Genève, backed by Leonardo DiCaprio, is becoming a leader in the ​sustainable luxury watch​ market.
- LePrix and Whatnot’s partnered to ​transform live shopping​ for luxury handbags.
- LVMH will showcase French luxury at the Paris Olympics, featuring brands like Chaumet, Berluti, and Dior in a ​global promotion​.
Bearish News
- Estée Lauder’s ​​cash flow plummeted​​ to a $1.5 billion deficit.
- The ​​luxury rental market​​ saw its first price decline since early 2021.
- Farfetch is undergoing a ​​difficult restructuring​​ following an executive overhaul and losing major luxury brand partners.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Visit the new behemoth Saks’ flagship in LA.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Vinovest launched a $30 million ​Capital Whiskey Fund​.
- Glenlivet marked its 200th year with a ​50-year-old whiskey​ series, blending Ethereum NFTs in its labels.
- Premium wine demand ​has risen​, fueled by younger consumers in India and China.
- Nuveen Natural Capital acquired Treasury Wine Estates’ Heathcote Vineyard ​for $14 million​.
- ​Spirits surpassed wine​ in sales for the first time in 45 years.
- Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg introduced a ​gin-based RTD cocktail brand​, inspired by ‘Gin & Juice’.
Bearish News
- French spirits ​exports fell​ 13% in 2023 due to US wholesalers destocking.
- Beam Suntory’s ​sales in North America​ dropped 2% in 2023.
- Gen Z’s disinterest is ​impacting the beer industry​.
- A ​new wine sales bill​ in New York could close small businesses, risking 45,000 jobs.
- Molson Coors employees in Fort Worth ​authorized a strike​, rejecting a contract over pay concerns amid high Super Bowl ad spend.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
See if Snoop Dogg’s Gin & Juice is any good.
There are three spots left on our investor trip to Tequila in February. ​Join us, won’t you?​
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Duetti raised ​​$90 million​ to buy indie artists’ catalogs.
- Iconic Artists Group bought Rod Stewart’s music catalog ​for $100 million​​.
- Cinq Music received a ​​$250 million investment​ to grow its music rights portfolio, focusing on Latin music and hip-hop.
- Superplastic and Post Malone launched the ​​Legend of Malone figurine​.
Bearish News
- Berlin’s indie film distribution market is ​struggling​ due to overproduction and unfavorable commercial terms.
- AMC’s valuation ​​fell to $782 million​​, down from $14.9 billion in early 2023.
- The DOJ ​is investigating a sports streaming deal​​ by Disney, Fox, and Warner.
- SiriusXM ​​lays off staff again​​, amidst a lawsuit from MLC against Pandora.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Evidently, catalogs are still hot.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Battery Mineral Resources Corp. ​​secured $25 million​​ to push the Punitaqui Mining Complex towards production.
- China’s gold demand ​reached a record​ in January.
- GEMXX Corporation ​​reported a 600% increase​​ in January product deliveries.
- Copper demand is expected to ​rise due to decarbonization​.
- Australia ​announced A$40 million in grants​ to boost global investment in green metals processing.
- Platinum ​surpassed palladium​ for the first time since 2018.
Bearish News
- Gold ​​fell below $2,000​​ per ounce, a two-month low.
- A-Mark Precious Metals Inc’s Director, Michael Wittmeyer, ​​sold 22,383 shares​​, marking a year of insider sales without purchases.
- New Gold’s ​​Q4 earnings missed forecasts​​.
- Stainless steel ​​struggles persist​​ with flat nickel prices and excess inventory amid weak demand.
- Globe Specialty Metals ​​anticipates a 90.5% earnings decline​​ year-over-year in its next report.
- Southern Copper’s ​​Q4 results disappointed​​, with EPS down 50% and net sales declining 18.6% year over year.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Sell your gold to China.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- ​Sony Walkman TPS-L2’s​ are selling on eBay for over $2,000.
- The world’s largest trading ​card shop just opened in Atlanta​.
- Reddit’s Alexis Ohanian and Brent Montgomery announced ‘Mantel’, a new ​niche collectibles social media​ platform.
- Star Trek’s Captain ​Picard’s Command Chair​ is up for auction, with estimates over $50,000.
- Hotel bathrobes are becoming a ​sought-after collectible​.
Bearish News
- Nike ​​slashed 1,600 jobs​​ in response to slow sales.
- Sega’s ​​Sonic Superstars underperformed​​.
- A FedEx truck lost trading cards worth ​$45,000​, including a rare Michael Jordan rookie card.
- StockX and GOAT saw ​​sales plummet​​ in 2023.
- Esports players ​​filed a $680 million lawsuit​​ against Activision Blizzard, accusing it of monopolizing ‘Call of Duty’ leagues.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
See what’s happening at ​Mantel​.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- GameGenie.com was ​sold for $65,000​.
- GoDaddy reported a 14% increase in ​domain aftermarket revenue​ for Q4 2023.
- Ammar Kubba sold a .io domain for ​​$9,900​.
- The keyword “new” ranked second in Afternic’s ​latest keyword report​.
- The new gTLD lottery ​is set for 2026​.
Bearish News
- A .eth domain dispute may end with a ​​$300,000 settlement​​.
- Uniswap’s founder warned of scams using fake ENS domains to ​​steal funds​​.
- AI-generated ​​fake obituaries​​ are creating an epidemic.
- Publishers like 404 Media are ​​blocking AI crawlers​​.
- Four domains selling Warzone RAT malware were ​​seized by authorities​​.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Take inspiration from Afternic’s ‘newest’ domain sales report.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ​ALTS 1 Fund​.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
