Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Wholesale Inflation Is Rising Again
- Real Estate: Florida Might Stop Collecting Property Tax
- Startups: Spain’s Ecosystem Is Heating Up
- Private Credit: Lots of Insider Selling at Apollo
- Crypto: Aave Is Still Dominant
- NFTs: Pudgy Penguins Catch Up To BAYC
- Art: Get A Michelangelo for Under $10,000
- Vintage Autos: Buy Joe Biden’s Old Cadillac?
- Coins: Massive Discovery of Battle of Hastings Coins
- Farmland: Watch Ukraine’s EU Accession Closely
- Luxury: Saks’ Behemoth New Flagship
- Wine and Spirits: Snoop Dogg Launches Gin & Juice
- Film & Music: Rod Stewart’s Catalog Sells for $10 Million
- Precious Metals: Gold Fell Below $2,000
- Collectibles: Hotel Bathrobes Gain Traction
- Websites: A $65,000 Domain Sales
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- The S&P 500 rose for the fifth consecutive week, up 1.28%.
- Global fund managers are the most optimistic they’ve been in two years.
- The IMF is confident in a global economic soft landing.
- Inflation in the EU is projected to drop to 3.0% in 2024, from 6.3% in 2023.
- Despite lower consumer spending, retailers like Walmart and Sephora are still expanding their physical locations.
Bearish News
- India’s tech sector growth halved to 3.8% in FY24, with a 3.3% drop in software exports.
- Russia’s economy faces major hurdles from a skilled worker exodus and tech restrictions.
- Post-Brexit, the UK’s economy is 5% smaller, lagging behind its peers.
- In China, labor protests surged, tripling in Q4 2023 amid economic deceleration.
- Japan’s GDP fell to fourth globally, entering a recession with a 0.4% contraction in Q4 2023.
- US retail sales fell 0.8% in January, the largest decline in 10 months.
- January’s wholesale inflation saw the biggest rise since August.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
ALTS 1 Fund news:
No news here
Real Estate
Bullish News
- In January, Houston’s housing market witnessed a 9% increase in single-family home sales, its second annual gain since 2021.
- San Diego’s life science real estate sector is experiencing rising leasing activity.
- Florida is debating the removal of property taxes, considering a shift to a consumption tax.
- Shurgard acquired Pickens Self-Storage in Germany for €120 million.
- Homebuilder confidence reached a peak not seen since August 2023.
Bearish News
- Q4 2023 saw a 25% drop in mortgage originations for commercial and multifamily properties.
- US office buildings could see prices drop by 30%, driven by the ongoing shift to remote work and a $2 trillion debt challenge.
- Swedish real estate developer Bonava’s shares plummeted by 50% in 2023.
- Boston might face a $1.5 billion shortfall in commercial property tax revenue by 2029.
- The industrial sector’s vacancy rates rose to 5.7% during 2023, a 230 basis point increase.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Boston might need to find some new revenue streams.
Startups
Bullish News
- B2B marketplaces hit a record $6.3 billion funding in 2023.
- Madrid’s startups saw a record 249 investment rounds in 2023, raising €1.2 billion, a 9% increase from the previous year.
- Techstars initiated a three-month program in Tokyo.
- Nearly $800 million has been invested in gig economy startups in the past 2 years.
- Dating startups are still raising major rounds.
- Water scarcity and purification startups saw increased funding in 2023.
Bearish News
- Funding for African HealthTech startups fell 2% in 2023, amidst a 39% overall drop in Africa’s tech funding.
- Barclays cut Rivian’s price target by 43.75%, citing demand and profitability issues.
- Oyo is backing out of IPO plans.
- Late-stage startups saw their valuation growth hit the slowest rate since 2016, with a 61.6% drop in median valuation increases.
- Coatue Management completely exited its position in Lucid Motors.
- Instacart cut 250 jobs and had three C-suite executives leave.
How to invest in startups right now:
Reconsider your EV positions.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Middle-market PE firms are becoming acquisition targets.
- Family offices increased allocations to alternatives to 52% from 50% in 2020.
- Lower middle-market firms succeeded in fundraising in 2023.
- Stone Point and General Atlantic raised their offer for HireRight to $1.65 billion.
- PE deals are set to accelerate in 2024 with $2.3 trillion in dry powder.
- Warburg Pincus wants to raise $2.5 billion for its new financial sector fund.
- Tony Robbins praised PE for its potential 20-30% returns.
Bearish News
- Skilled nursing transactions hit a post-pandemic low in 2023.
- Blackstone / GSO Long-Short Credit Income Fund saw a 12% increase in short interest in January.
- Cash returns to PE investors hit a 15-year low.
- Only four deals were made in Medicare Advantage by PE in 2023.
- JPMorgan and State Street left the Climate Action 100 group.
- In the past year, there has been only 1 insider buy at Apollo Global Management, despite 18 insider sells.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Fundraise from family offices and focus on smaller deals.
Crypto
Here’s what you need to know:
Bullish News
- Bitcoin surpassed $52,000, and the total crypto market cap hit a 26-month high.
- Solana’s SOL recorded $1.7 billion in futures bets and a 15% price rise in two weeks.
- An Ethereum whale bought 39,900 ETH, valued at $99.5 million.
- Attacks on Bitcoin and Ethereum are now economically unfeasible.
- Aave has maintained over 50% market share for 3 years.
- Chainlink (LINK) hit a 1-year high of $20.85.
- Crypto money laundering dropped by 30% in 2023.
- Digital Currency Group’s Q4 revenue increased by 59% to $210 million.
Bearish News
- Grayscale and Digital Currency Group rejected plans to liquidate $1.6 billion in trust shares.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit “extreme greed.”
- Jupiter Asset Management pulled its investment from Ripple XRP ETP over regulatory worries.
- Chainlink saw a $130 million sell-off by whales.
- The Blockchain Association warned that Senator Warren’s crypto bill could push the industry abroad.
- The “Binance Trust Wallet” iOS app is under scrutiny for a flaw that led to financial losses by allowing security mnemonic guesses.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Change your Binance password.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Sotheby’s Bitcoin ordinals auction garnered over $1.09 million.
- Pudgy Penguins approached parity with Bored Ape Yacht Club.
- Ethereum’s NFT market hit $158 million in weekly sales, its highest since February 2023.
- Tensor captured 77% of the Solana NFT market.
- An EtherRock sold for 279 ETH ($739,015).
- Fischer Sports introduced an NFT ski package.
- Afronifty became Africa’s top NFT marketplace, with a 420% increase in NFT mints in 2023.
Bearish News
- The ERC-404 token standard dipped in price as DN-404, a more efficient version, is set to launch.
- Pandora and DeFrogs saw major losses.
- Insider trading suspicions arose around Moonbirds NFT sales spiking just before Yuga Labs’ acquisition news.
- YouTuber KSI is under fire for market manipulation concerns.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Play around on Tensor.
Artwork
Bullish News
- The ARTEX Stock Exchange debuted featuring Francis Bacon’s ‘Three Studies for Portrait of George Dyer’ in their launch.
- A Michelangelo drawing is up for grabs at Christie’s for $6,000-$8,000.
- Gustav Klimt’s “Portrait of Fraulein Lieser” is up for auction, expected to reach up to $54 million.
- The Musée d’Orsay’s Van Gogh exhibition attracted a record 793,556 visitors with its virtual reality feature.
- The Art Institute of Chicago received a $25 million donation from the Bucksbaum family.
- French gallery Ceysson & Bénétière opened a new location in Tokyo.
Bearish News
- Chicago’s Museum of Contemporary Art staff initiated a union campaign.
- Emmanuel Perrotin ceased operations in Paris and Dubai.
- Simon Lee Gallery’s shutdown left 153 creditors owed $12.6 million.
- A Banksy artwork in Peckham, worth up to £500,000, was stolen.
- The Portland Museum of Art eliminated 13 jobs after a 35% visitation drop since 2020.
- Australian gallerist Tove Langridge was charged with nine thefts, facing up to five years in prison for unauthorized art sales.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
We have a bit of space left in our Frank Auerbach opportunity.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Banksy’s “Crazy Horse” artwork, featuring a car door, is expected to fetch $200,000 at auction.
- The Chevrolet Corvette Z06 (2001–2004) has increased in value by 24% since 2022.
- A New Hampshire property, listed at $399,900, comes with over 300 classic cars. Some are in better shape than others.
- A 2003 Acura NSX-T, rare in its configuration, sold for $95,700 at Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale.
- Thailand’s classic car culture is thriving.
- A vintage Ferrari V12 engine dynamometer is up for auction without reserve in Florida, estimated between $125,000 and $175,000.
- President Biden’s 2018 Cadillac ATS-V is up for auction, with bids nearing $30,000.
Bearish News
- Several high-value classic cars failed to sell at Paris auctions, missing their reserve prices by over €1 million.
- Aston Martin faces a $1.4 billion debt crisis.
- The US detained thousands of luxury cars, including Audis, due to parts from forced labor in China.
- Adrian’s First Fridays scaled back car shows, replacing them with carnival games.
- The Mullin Automotive Museum in Oxnard closed after its founder’s death, ending its showcase of Art Deco-era French cars.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Develop an appreciation for early 2000’s Corvettes.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Archaeologists in Bulgaria found a rare medallion of Emperor Caracalla.
- A newly discovered hoard of coins from the Battle of Hastings is expected to sell for £200,000.
- The Ronald A. Slovick Family Collection of Indian Peace Medals will be auctioned by Stack’s Bowers Galleries, featuring a sought-after 1795 George Washington medal.
- The Central States Numismatic Society will debut its State Showcase at the 2024 convention, featuring Iowa with 3,000 ANACS-certified state quarters for attendees.
Bearish News
- Dominion’s Grading Service closed.
- Investors keep overpaying for “conditionally rare” modern coins, misled by population reports.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Study up on Bulgarian history 🇧🇬
Farmland
Bullish News
- Source Agriculture wants to raise $75 million to become the largest US farmland investment entity focused on vegan-friendly projects.
- A piece of north Norfolk farmland sold for £75,000 per acre.
- New Jersey’s agricultural sector added 115 new farms, with sales nearing $1.5 billion.
- Murray Wise Associates (MWA) expanded its farmland management portfolio to over 40,000 acres across 10 states.
- Hemp is now included in the USDA Census.
Bearish News
- Wisconsin’s dairy farms saw a 30% drop since 2017.
- Farm loan interest expenses jumped 43% from 2022 to 2023.
- One in ten Idaho farms closed between 2017 and 2022.
- Farm consolidation in the US is leading to less diversity in food production.
- Operational costs for farmers will rise by 34% because of Net-Zero Climate-Control policies.
- New York reported a loss of 364,000 acres and 2,800 farms in five years, the biggest decline in 30 years.
- Ukraine’s EU accession could lead to a 20% cut in subsidies for current EU member states.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Pay attention to Net-Zero Climate-Control policies.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- JIMMY CHOO launched a Crystal Slipper featuring 12,938 Swarovski crystals.
- Saks Fifth Avenue’s Beverly Hills flagship reopened after a $52 million renovation.
- Growth in the luxury eyewear market is expected this year, driven by online sales.
- Luxury brands increased their Out-of-Home (OOH) advertising spending by 27% in 2023.
- Swiss startup ID Genève, backed by Leonardo DiCaprio, is becoming a leader in the sustainable luxury watch market.
- LePrix and Whatnot’s partnered to transform live shopping for luxury handbags.
- LVMH will showcase French luxury at the Paris Olympics, featuring brands like Chaumet, Berluti, and Dior in a global promotion.
Bearish News
- Estée Lauder’s cash flow plummeted to a $1.5 billion deficit.
- The luxury rental market saw its first price decline since early 2021.
- Farfetch is undergoing a difficult restructuring following an executive overhaul and losing major luxury brand partners.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Visit the new behemoth Saks’ flagship in LA.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Vinovest launched a $30 million Capital Whiskey Fund.
- Glenlivet marked its 200th year with a 50-year-old whiskey series, blending Ethereum NFTs in its labels.
- Premium wine demand has risen, fueled by younger consumers in India and China.
- Nuveen Natural Capital acquired Treasury Wine Estates’ Heathcote Vineyard for $14 million.
- Spirits surpassed wine in sales for the first time in 45 years.
- Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg introduced a gin-based RTD cocktail brand, inspired by ‘Gin & Juice’.
Bearish News
- French spirits exports fell 13% in 2023 due to US wholesalers destocking.
- Beam Suntory’s sales in North America dropped 2% in 2023.
- Gen Z’s disinterest is impacting the beer industry.
- A new wine sales bill in New York could close small businesses, risking 45,000 jobs.
- Molson Coors employees in Fort Worth authorized a strike, rejecting a contract over pay concerns amid high Super Bowl ad spend.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
See if Snoop Dogg’s Gin & Juice is any good.
There are three spots left on our investor trip to Tequila in February. Join us, won’t you?
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Duetti raised $90 million to buy indie artists’ catalogs.
- Iconic Artists Group bought Rod Stewart’s music catalog for $100 million.
- Cinq Music received a $250 million investment to grow its music rights portfolio, focusing on Latin music and hip-hop.
- Superplastic and Post Malone launched the Legend of Malone figurine.
Bearish News
- Berlin’s indie film distribution market is struggling due to overproduction and unfavorable commercial terms.
- AMC’s valuation fell to $782 million, down from $14.9 billion in early 2023.
- The DOJ is investigating a sports streaming deal by Disney, Fox, and Warner.
- SiriusXM lays off staff again, amidst a lawsuit from MLC against Pandora.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Evidently, catalogs are still hot.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Battery Mineral Resources Corp. secured $25 million to push the Punitaqui Mining Complex towards production.
- China’s gold demand reached a record in January.
- GEMXX Corporation reported a 600% increase in January product deliveries.
- Copper demand is expected to rise due to decarbonization.
- Australia announced A$40 million in grants to boost global investment in green metals processing.
- Platinum surpassed palladium for the first time since 2018.
Bearish News
- Gold fell below $2,000 per ounce, a two-month low.
- A-Mark Precious Metals Inc’s Director, Michael Wittmeyer, sold 22,383 shares, marking a year of insider sales without purchases.
- New Gold’s Q4 earnings missed forecasts.
- Stainless steel struggles persist with flat nickel prices and excess inventory amid weak demand.
- Globe Specialty Metals anticipates a 90.5% earnings decline year-over-year in its next report.
- Southern Copper’s Q4 results disappointed, with EPS down 50% and net sales declining 18.6% year over year.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Sell your gold to China.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Sony Walkman TPS-L2’s are selling on eBay for over $2,000.
- The world’s largest trading card shop just opened in Atlanta.
- Reddit’s Alexis Ohanian and Brent Montgomery announced ‘Mantel’, a new niche collectibles social media platform.
- Star Trek’s Captain Picard’s Command Chair is up for auction, with estimates over $50,000.
- Hotel bathrobes are becoming a sought-after collectible.
Bearish News
- Nike slashed 1,600 jobs in response to slow sales.
- Sega’s Sonic Superstars underperformed.
- A FedEx truck lost trading cards worth $45,000, including a rare Michael Jordan rookie card.
- StockX and GOAT saw sales plummet in 2023.
- Esports players filed a $680 million lawsuit against Activision Blizzard, accusing it of monopolizing ‘Call of Duty’ leagues.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
See what’s happening at Mantel.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- GameGenie.com was sold for $65,000.
- GoDaddy reported a 14% increase in domain aftermarket revenue for Q4 2023.
- Ammar Kubba sold a .io domain for $9,900.
- The keyword “new” ranked second in Afternic’s latest keyword report.
- The new gTLD lottery is set for 2026.
Bearish News
- A .eth domain dispute may end with a $300,000 settlement.
- Uniswap’s founder warned of scams using fake ENS domains to steal funds.
- AI-generated fake obituaries are creating an epidemic.
- Publishers like 404 Media are blocking AI crawlers.
- Four domains selling Warzone RAT malware were seized by authorities.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Take inspiration from Afternic’s ‘newest’ domain sales report.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
