How to hedge against Boeing (shares) crashing and burning

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Analysis, if you can call it that, by Wyatt

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What’s today’s idea? By Wyatt

After a raft of holiday calamities, Boeing is at risk of becoming a meme stock only taken seriously by the Wall St Bets crew lurking on ​Reddit​.

And maybe a “raft of calamities” is underselling things a bit.

And while Boeing’s order backlog looks good, and the commercials are actually fairly sound, fundamentals and “analysis” don’t necessarily drive share prices in this economy.

Like the Titanic, Boeing shares will be slow to move based on indicators like “orders, costs, or revenue,” but sentiment can be a cruel mistress, and for Boeing right now, all news is bad news.

And while it looks like sentiment is turning around, it’s only because nothing has fallen out of the sky in a few days. Shares are still sliding.

At $206, shares are off 25% since All the Bad Things began in earnest January 5, 2024, but they’re still well above the company’s six month lows ($177), which were achieved in October 2023.

There’s more room to fall, and it’s reasonable to expect any kind of bad news will pull the floor out from share prices, sending them down 20% or more.

Besides more planes falling out of the sky, the next two most likely catalysts are (a) Boeing’s earnings call on/around April 24, 2024 and (b) the company sacking CEO Dave Calhoun.

Predictions market ​Kalshi​ puts the latter at 45% likelihood.

Beyond those specific events, I think it’s likely Boeing could continue to bleed down over the course of the next two or three months.

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Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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