Sports Cards Insider – Dec 14, 2021

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We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.

Sports cards on the fractional platforms slowed their decline rolling into the end of 2021. With two weeks left, they’ll try to stay in the black.

All stats come from assets trading on secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

Checking in on CardLadder’s index, the bifurcation between mid/low-end cards and high-end continues to grow. The weak are getting weaker while blue-chips stay just above water.

Courtesy CardLadder

The indices at OnlyAlt were similar to last week as two of the five major categories ticked up while the other three continued to slide. Pokemon, which they also track, was off slightly.

For the first time in weeks, one sport – baseball – is up over the last three months. They’d all been negative before.

Courtesy OnlyAlt

Last Week

Fractional secondary markets

Soccer cards in the fractional space bucked the broader market trends as they were up 6.4% last week compared to negative returns elsewhere. Basketball cards were the only tier-one sport to decline last week as football was up and baseball was flat.

This market can’t quite decide if it’s hit bottom or not.

All stats come from assets trading on the secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

Auctions

Tom Brady BGS 8 / 10 Auto. Yours for just $900k (courtesy Leland’s)

Leland’s completed its Fall Classic auction 12/12/21 with a few blue-chip items of note.

This Week

Assets dropping on marketplaces

Three IPOs across as many sports this week:

Lawrence Taylor 1982 Topps BGS 10

Cristiano Ronaldo 2003 Panini Mega Craques PSA 10

  • Market Cap: $305,585
  • Inferred Value: $320,000
  • Date: 12/14/21 on Collectable
  • Recommended [Insiders Only]
Fun fact: Ronaldo’s childhood nickname was “crybaby” (photo credit Collectable)

Jordan, Bryant, LeBron, Magic Quad Patch 2007 UD /10 BGS 7

  • Market Cap: $121,500
  • Inferred Value: $55,000
  • Date: 12/16/21 on Collectable
  • Recommended [Insiders Only]

Undervalued assets trading on marketplaces

Of the 11 sports cards new to trading this week on Rally or Collectable, only four look undervalued by at least 20%. Keep an eye on the sealed Fleer box, along with the 1933 Babe Ruth. Both fit the blue chip criteria to suggest a soft valuation.

Slim pickings… But bargains to be had for the savvy investor

Auctions

Two reasonably big auctions this week as Goldin offers up some blue chips and Heritage chips in with a few notable assets.

Goldin’s led out by another 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie, but there’s something different this time – it’s part of the Steve Aoki collection, whatever that means. It’s actually caused a bit of controversy on the twitters and instas mostly involving eye rolls and saying mean things about Steve Aoki. Either way it’ll be interesting to see how this card ends in five days – is the pedigree value add, or does it diminish value?

I could only find one other card slabbed with the same tag, but there must be more.

Investors over at Collectable will want to keep an eye on the 2003 Ultimate LeBron as well. Currently at $80k, anything above $190k or so could indicate a shift north for the stars’ cards.

Vintage-card lovers will want to keep track of the 1933 Goudey complete set currently sat around $26k. It’s got four different Babe Ruth cards and two for Lou Gehrig. The cards are in pretty rough shape (PSA 1 – 2 for the Ruth and Gehrig cards), but this could be the most affordable you’ll see a complete set for some time.

F1 fans may want to keep an eye on the 2020 Topps Chrome F1 Sapphire Max Verstappen after he dramatically (and controversially) won the F1 Title yesterday. It’s at $11k at time of writing.

All three major platforms have got a 2001 Upper Deck SP Authentic Tiger Woods Auto card…and so does Goldin. It’s currently at $7k and needs to tick above $20k to indicate some positive movement.

Heritage features a Steph Curry rookie and a full ticket from LeBron James’s debut along with lots of not-quite-blue-chip cards from MJ, Mantle, Brady, Bobby Orr, and Cobb. Performance here relative to the top results at Goldin will tell us what to expect from mid-tier cards going forward.

Live at OnlyAlt

Otis investors will finally get a comp for their Kylian Mbappe 2018 Panini Prizm World Cup Orange PSA 10. There’s one over at OnlyAlt in their ever-more-frequent liquid auction this week. Market cap is $21,450, and the card is currently at $4,150 with three days to go.

That’s all for this week. Make sure you sign up to our Discord, where issue previews and in-depth valuations get kicked around.

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Author

Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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