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We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.
Sports cards on the fractional platforms slowed their decline rolling into the end of 2021. With two weeks left, they’ll try to stay in the black.
Checking in on CardLadder’s index, the bifurcation between mid/low-end cards and high-end continues to grow. The weak are getting weaker while blue-chips stay just above water.
The indices at OnlyAlt were similar to last week as two of the five major categories ticked up while the other three continued to slide. Pokemon, which they also track, was off slightly.
For the first time in weeks, one sport – baseball – is up over the last three months. They’d all been negative before.
Table of Contents
Last Week
Fractional secondary markets
Soccer cards in the fractional space bucked the broader market trends as they were up 6.4% last week compared to negative returns elsewhere. Basketball cards were the only tier-one sport to decline last week as football was up and baseball was flat.
This market can’t quite decide if it’s hit bottom or not.
Auctions
Leland’s completed its Fall Classic auction 12/12/21 with a few blue-chip items of note.
- Tom Brady 2000 Playoff Contenders Championship Ticket Auto /500 BGS 8: $900k. There’s a BGS 8.5 / 10 Auto currently on Collectable with a market cap of $1.9m, which may be a bit high based on the auction result.
- Zion Williamson NT Stars & Stripes /30 BGS 9 sold for $72k, which is nearly in line with the current market cap ($71k) for an identical card on Collectable.
This Week
Assets dropping on marketplaces
Three IPOs across as many sports this week:
Lawrence Taylor 1982 Topps BGS 10
- Market Cap: $12,000
- Inferred Value: $10,000
- Date: 12/13/21 on Rally
- Recommended [Insiders Only]
Cristiano Ronaldo 2003 Panini Mega Craques PSA 10
- Market Cap: $305,585
- Inferred Value: $320,000
- Date: 12/14/21 on Collectable
- Recommended [Insiders Only]
Jordan, Bryant, LeBron, Magic Quad Patch 2007 UD /10 BGS 7
- Market Cap: $121,500
- Inferred Value: $55,000
- Date: 12/16/21 on Collectable
- Recommended [Insiders Only]
Undervalued assets trading on marketplaces
Of the 11 sports cards new to trading this week on Rally or Collectable, only four look undervalued by at least 20%. Keep an eye on the sealed Fleer box, along with the 1933 Babe Ruth. Both fit the blue chip criteria to suggest a soft valuation.
Auctions
Two reasonably big auctions this week as Goldin offers up some blue chips and Heritage chips in with a few notable assets.
Goldin’s led out by another 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie, but there’s something different this time – it’s part of the Steve Aoki collection, whatever that means. It’s actually caused a bit of controversy on the twitters and instas mostly involving eye rolls and saying mean things about Steve Aoki. Either way it’ll be interesting to see how this card ends in five days – is the pedigree value add, or does it diminish value?
I could only find one other card slabbed with the same tag, but there must be more.
The PSA 9 Pikachu Illustrator officially slabbed in The Aoki Collection. What do u consider the holy grails of all sports and tcg cards are? #holygrail pic.twitter.com/8l1l9lOlgX
— Steve Aoki (@steveaoki) January 30, 2021
Investors over at Collectable will want to keep an eye on the 2003 Ultimate LeBron as well. Currently at $80k, anything above $190k or so could indicate a shift north for the stars’ cards.
Vintage-card lovers will want to keep track of the 1933 Goudey complete set currently sat around $26k. It’s got four different Babe Ruth cards and two for Lou Gehrig. The cards are in pretty rough shape (PSA 1 – 2 for the Ruth and Gehrig cards), but this could be the most affordable you’ll see a complete set for some time.
F1 fans may want to keep an eye on the 2020 Topps Chrome F1 Sapphire Max Verstappen after he dramatically (and controversially) won the F1 Title yesterday. It’s at $11k at time of writing.
All three major platforms have got a 2001 Upper Deck SP Authentic Tiger Woods Auto card…and so does Goldin. It’s currently at $7k and needs to tick above $20k to indicate some positive movement.
Heritage features a Steph Curry rookie and a full ticket from LeBron James’s debut along with lots of not-quite-blue-chip cards from MJ, Mantle, Brady, Bobby Orr, and Cobb. Performance here relative to the top results at Goldin will tell us what to expect from mid-tier cards going forward.
Otis investors will finally get a comp for their Kylian Mbappe 2018 Panini Prizm World Cup Orange PSA 10. There’s one over at OnlyAlt in their ever-more-frequent liquid auction this week. Market cap is $21,450, and the card is currently at $4,150 with three days to go.
That’s all for this week. Make sure you sign up to our Discord, where issue previews and in-depth valuations get kicked around.
