Sports Cards Insider – Jan 4, 2022

Welcome to Sports Cards Insider for January 4th, 2022 – FREE version.

We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.

Sports Cards performance 2021

Overall it was a really good year for sports cards as nearly every category climbed. Baseball, hockey, and basketball were each up around 100%, soccer climbed nearly 200%, and football was up 300%.

Only wrestling and golf were down on the year, shedding 20% each.

However, sports cards on fractional indices continued to slide into the end of 2021. Up nearly 60% in late March, the asset class finished December only slightly positive, up 4%.

All stats come from assets trading on secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

This generally tracks the CardLadder 50 index, which is a broad representation of high-end cards at lower grades (note their X-Axis is oddly skewed to overrepresent the end of the year).

Who makes charts like this?

That said, I believe CardLadder’s High End index is the best benchmark for fractional sports cards, and while that index slowed down toward the end of the year, it continued to climb. It finished the year up around 200%.

Still climbing

So either cards on fractional platforms were overvalued in the spring, and they’ve come back to an appropriate valuation, or they’re undervalued now.

Our analysis shows sports cards are overvalued on the fractional platforms by around 4% right now, so it’s more likely the former – irrational exuberance drove the asset class to unrealistic prices last spring, and they’ve now settled more or less where they should be.

Last Week in Sports Cards

Fractional secondary markets

As if to punctuate a rotten end of the year, sports cards continued to slide on fractional platforms last week with only golf, tennis, and baseball posting positive returns.

All stats come from assets trading on the secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

Again this bucks the broader market trend for sports cards as every category was up last week on Alt.

Alt’s indices are prettier than mine.

With only around 4% left to slide before fractional platforms hit fair market value, there are going to be some good buying opportunities soon (there are already a few now).

Auctions

Right in line with recent comps

Crickets on the auction block over the holidays, I’m afraid. There were a couple of notable sales on eBay, with two 2003-04 Topps Chrome LeBron James rookies selling in the $12k range (in line with recent comps).

The biggest-ticket item to sell was a 2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady Rookie Ticket Auto BGS 9, which went for $95k. That’s also right in line with recent sales, but Collectable have a pair trading on their secondary market right now for $234k.

This Week

Assets dropping on marketplaces

Three IPOs this week with one each from baseball, football, and basketball.

Will I ever get into the Hall of Fame?

Barry Bonds 1986 Topps Tiffany PSA 10

  • Market Cap: $8,000
  • Inferred Value: $7,600
  • Date: 1/4/22 on Rally
  • Recommendation: [INSIDERS ONLY]

2000 SPX Spectrum RC BGS 9.5 Tom Brady

  • Market Cap: $538,500
  • Inferred Value: $225,000 (detailed valuation in our Discord)
  • Date: 1/4/22 on Collectable
  • Recommendation: [INSIDERS ONLY]

Kobe Bryant 1996 Topps Chrome Refractor PSA 10

  • Market Cap: $225,000
  • Inferred Value: $233,000
  • Date: 1/7/22 on Rally
  • Recommendation: [INSIDERS ONLY]

Auctions

I’m undervalued

Goldin Auctions continues its December Elite auction and is set to end this week.

These are the cards I highlighted last time and am tracking most closely:

  • 1958 Alifabolaget Pele PSA 4. I’m super bullish on this card in all grades. It last sold for $66k in September. Look for it to double that. Update – Currently at $76,800
  • 1961 – 62 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain PSA 9. This card has shed 40% of its value since it hit highwater in April 2021 at $461k. Anything above $300k will be a strong sign for vintage blue chip basketball cards. Update – Currently at $342k
  • 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7. This card has been all over the place between $198k and $350k this year. It’s well-centred for a PSA 7, and there’s a chance it could set an all-time high. Update – Currently at $204k
  • 1999 Pokemon Charizard PSA 10. Not a sports card, but one to keep an eye on anyway. It’s been trending up and tends to correlate to sports cards. Anything touching $300k will be a good sign overall. Update – Currently at $228k
  • 2000 UD SP Authentic Tom Brady PSA 10. Another prerequisite for any high-end auction, it performed admirably in the PWCC Premier last week hammering at $144k. Update – Currently at $103k

Worth noting as well that the 1986 Michael Jordan rookie is up to $312k, which is just shy of the last sale of $336k. If it can puncture $400k in the next four days, that’ll be an excellent sign given the card’s recent movement.

The MJ rookie card has been stuck in a rut. Is it ready to break out?

That’s all for this week. Make sure you sign up to our Discord, where issue previews and in-depth valuations get kicked around.

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Author

Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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