Video Games Insider – Apr 22, 2022

Welcome to Video Games Insider for April 22nd, 2022.

We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.

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Video Games in 2022

All video games trading on the fractional secondary markets Rally and Otis

Video Games have had a tough go of it in 2022 on fractional marketplaces like Rally and Otis, but there are signs of a bottom emerging. This matches a shift in the broader markets as well.

Video Games last week

All stats come from assets trading on the secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally.

Fractional Marketplaces

It was a pretty good week for video games across fractional marketplaces. The solid volume across a number of platforms is really encouraging.

This Week

Fractional Marketplaces

One IPO from Rally this week.

Available on Rally today.

NES Zelda II: A Link to the Past WATA 9.8 A+

  • Market Cap: $60,000
  • Inferred Value: $50,000
  • Platform: Rally
  • Date: April 22
  • Our view: Pass. [Valuation, and I’d be very nervous investing in tier-2 video games right now. We’re seeing strength at the very top of the market and the lower end, but this mid-range feels like a no-man’s land at the minute.]

Auctions

This week, we’ve got the first big auction since January at Heritage, and it’s going to provide plenty of comps if you’re invested in video games on fractional platforms Rally and Otis.

The standout so far is an early production Sonic the Hedgehog game from the Sega Genesis. Grade 9.8 A+ by WATA, there are none higher and only four other identical copies.

The Sonic movie is actually quite watchable as an adult.

Already past $250k, this may set the record for a Sega Genesis game ($312k for an inferior version of this game from last October).

Based on that previous sale, a hammer price north of $600k is to be expected for this title. I’d view anything less than that as a negative indicator for the high-end video games market.

An early run hang-tab version of the classic NES game Metroid has also blown through $100k. With only one copy graded higher, this is a huge get for whoever wins this auction.

Wata has only graded six sealed copies of this variant as of their November 2021 population report, and only one has graded higher than this one.

An early run Legend of Zelda game is also on the block, and the price to beat there is $150k or so to give us a positive signal about the top end of the market.

A number of cartridge in box (unsealed games, designated CIB) are already past $1k with an early-run matte-sticker Super Mario Bros cartridge already well past $30k.

This is a fascinating segment of the market. We may start to see these sell for $5k+ regularly.

Goldin, which has included around 100 video games in its Spring Elite auction, is also featuring a Super Mario Bros CIB cartridge. There are still 11 days left yet, so it’s still too early to make any judgments on current price action, but this could go for $5k.

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Picture of Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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