Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
On Friday we shared three investing ideas–one each for tequila, whisky, and mezcal.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Could the S&P hit 5500?
- Real Estate: A 9.5% increase in home sales
- Startups: Roblox launched a creator fund
- Private Credit: Bridgewater is having a good year
- Crypto: BlackRock launched a tokenized fund
- NFTs: Christie’s launched a new marketplace
- Art: Ken Griffin spent $100 million
- Vintage Autos: Buy Mike Tyson’s old limo
- Coins: Counterfeit 1921-D Walking Liberties
- Farmland: Corn prices could take a hit
- Luxury: Hermes is gatekeeping its merchandise
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Fraudulent tasting parties
- Film & Music: Taylor Swift breaks another record (lol)
- Precious Metals: No more sales tax in Wisconsin
- Collectibles: Buy Steve Job’s business card
- Websites: Insider selling at Squarespace
Let’s go
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Taiwan’s stock market hit record highs.
- Jobless claims fell last week, dropping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels.
- Equity allocations at Bank of America rose to a net 28% overweight.
- Société Générale raised its S&P 500 target to 5,500.
- Norway’s economy grew by 0.4% in January.
- Oxford’s global risk survey showed a reduced recession probability of 7.2% — less than half of what it was in October 2023.
- A recent immigration surge into the US has boosted the GDP growth projection 2.1%.
Bearish News
- Turkey’s central bank hiked interest rates by 500 basis points to 50%.
- The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy, marking its first hike in 17 years.
- Morgan Stanley warned a US dollar regime shift could threaten stocks.
- US Treasury yield curve inversion has become the longest on record.
- The UK’s budget deficit swelled to £8.40 billion last month.
- California’s unemployment rate reached 5.3%, the highest in the nation.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
ALTS 1 Fund news:
We’re closing out q1 this week. Investor updates should be with you by the second week of April.
We’re updating the prospectus and landing page in anticipation of opening the fund up to new investors next month.
Altea news:
Upcoming Deals
South Island, New Zealand NRL Expansion
We’re working with an organization looking to expand NRL rugby to New Zealand. They’re raising a small working capital round of $200k to $300k to finalize the bid (which already has wide support). I hope to have them in for a Q&A in the next week or so.
SignalRank
I love this one. SignalRank has produced an algorithm that picks Series B winners not by looking at the company itself but at the relative success of investors in their seed rounds (winners pick winners). They’re smashing traditional VC returns by outsourcing due diligence, running it through a scoring algorithm, and taking on micro-VC follow-on allocation. I’ll have something on this for you in early April.
Agave Farmland
After our trip to Mexico, there was significant interest in acquiring cash-flowing agave farmland. We may have found the right opportunity. Ten hectares of prime roadside land are available for around $1.1 million, a good price. There’s also room to build a distillery and accommodation for STRs. More to come on this.
Real Estate
Hedge fund face-off.
Add image
Bullish News
- New home listings are up 17.8% compared to this time last year.
- Blackstone thinks that real estate has bottomed.
- Dallas-Fort Worth’s real estate market had the nation’s second-largest rise in home sales in January 2024.
- February 2024 saw a 9.5% increase in existing-home sales.
- US single-family homebuilding hit a two-year high in February.
- Real estate tokenization is expected to reach a market size of $16 trillion by 2030.
- AI home brokers could soon replace human agents, offering more reliable services at lower costs.
Bearish News
- Multifamily loan losses spiked with a 16% loss rate as 2021’s peak debt comes due.
- Office values have dropped 35%, exceeding the 2008 crisis.
- Fortress Investment Group’s co-CEO predicted the real estate market will only go down from here.
- China’s new property sales have dropped 29.3% this year.
- Credit Suisse’s flagship real estate fund lost 22%.
- Minneapolis property values fell for the first time in a decade.
- Zillow’s stock plummeted nearly 13% after the $418 million realtor settlement.
- Westbrook Partners defaulted on a $72.5 million loan for the Four Seasons San Francisco.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Home prices soar. Office prices plummet… Consider moving into a cubicle. Literally, because that’s all Gen Z can afford.
Startups
Bullish News
- Roblox introduced a $35 million Creator Fund.
- Saudi Arabia and Andreessen Horowitz discussed launching a $40 billion AI fund.
- The CareVoice secured a $10 million Series B funding, defying the general trend of health tech funding.
- Y Combinator has acquired at least $2 billion in new funding under CEO Garry Tan.
- Two notable updates in the mobility space:
- Moove raised $100 million in Series B funding, valuing the company at $750 million.
- InDrive’s partnership with General Catalyst doubled its financing to $300 million.
- World Fund secured a record-breaking
- This is the largest first-time fund raised by any climate tech VC in European history.
Bearish News
- Robotics investment reached a five-year low in 2023.
- India’s venture capital funding only produced two unicorns last year, compared to 44 in 2021.
- European startups have turned to convertible debt in place of venture funding.
- More biopharma layoffs, which is bad news for startups looking for exits:
- Both GSK and NextCure have let go of major portions of their workforces.
- The US Justice Department is intensifying its crackdown on AI fraud.
- Only 1% to 1.5% of startups experience a “good” exit within the first 5 years.
How to invest in startups right now:
We did a short report on a fantastic company raising a round for a mezcal brand out of Mexico. Check it out (item 3).
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Bridgewater Associates’ flagship Pure Alpha fund gained 9.9% in the first two months of 2024.
- PE firms divested over $30 billion in US shale assets in a record year for upstream M&A.
- BNY Mellon expanded its partnership with CIFC to enhance US private credit offerings.
- Apollo Global Management’s $11 billion offer for Paramount Global sparked a competitive bidding war.
- Fullerton Fund Management secured $100 million for a PE fund focused on decarbonization opportunities in Asia.
Bearish News
- PE investments in the Middle East have hit a three-year low.
- The head of a fraudulent PE firm was sentenced to 6 years for a $10 million affinity fraud scheme.
- Steward Health Care has sold nine hospitals due to the high risk of PE.
- PE firms have purchased nearly one-third of the US methadone clinic market.
- Carlyle Group left a $300 million financing gap after withdrawing from the Timberwolves purchase.
- Barings sued Corinthia, alleging misuse of confidential information.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Can Bridgewater maintain their returns all year?
Crypto
Here’s what you need to know:
Bullish News
- Binance CEO Richard Teng predicted Bitcoin will cross $80,000 by the end of the year. [Ed: no kidding he did]
- Figure Technologies secured $60 million to launch a decentralized exchange using the Provenance blockchain.
- Binance and Sygnum introduced a tri-party custody solution for institutional investors.
- Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund became the fifth most popular ETF in 2024.
- Indonesia’s crypto market transactions hit $1.92 billion last month.
- Grayscale launched the Digital Large Cap Fund, offering exposure to top cryptocurrencies for SEC-accredited investors.
- BlackRock introduced its first tokenized fund, BUIDL, on the Ethereum network.
Bearish News
- Sequoia Capital reduced its crypto fund from $585 million to $200 million.
- A London court convicted a woman for laundering bitcoin linked to a $6.3 billion fraud.
- Riot Platforms’ $640 million Texas project has faced local opposition over environmental concerns.
- OKX has announced its exit from India due to regulatory challenges.
- Trezor’s official X account was hacked in a SIM-swap attack.
- Bitcoin’s fourth halving could lead to mining power centralization.
- The IMF recommended stricter crypto taxation for Pakistan in a $3 billion bailout bid.
- Monero faced a 51% attack threat as the MineXMR pool nears critical hash rate dominance.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
CUMMIES are back.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Ethereum’s historic CryptoPunk sale pushed its 24-hour NFT sales to over $32 million.
- Christie’s launched Christie’s 3.0, the first global auction house NFT marketplace on the Ethereum blockchain.
- Runestone NFTs became the top collection on Bitcoin with a market valuation nearing $355 million.
- NodeMonkes surpassed BAYC in market cap with a 53.3% surge in floor price.
- SunContract launched the world’s first NFT marketplace for real-world solar panels.
- Naver Corp and LINE NEXT launched NOW.Drops, an NFT platform for K-pop fans.
Bearish News
- A French developer stole $900,000 from the TICKER token presale to buy meme coins and Milady NFTs.
- Bitcoin NFT sales saw a 44% drop, yet still lead the market with $12.2 million in sales.
- Sorare, an NFT fantasy sports startup, laid off 13% of its staff.
- Mason Rothschild, the creator of the MetaBirkins NFT, faces a museum display ban after a trademark lawsuit victory.
- Dolomite’s security breach led to a $1.8 million loss due to an exploited contract loophole.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Punks are back?
Artwork
Bullish News
- The TEFAF art fair priced Van Gogh’s “Head of a Peasant Woman in a White Headdress” at €4.5 million.
- Chicago’s Union League Club is selling a Monet to pay for renovations. The club acquired it in 1895 for $500.
- Mark Rothko’s No. 6 (Violet, Green and Red) sold for $100 million to hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin.
- The world’s first art stock exchange, Artex, facilitated a $55 million IPO for Francis Bacon’s masterpiece.
- The Metropolitan Museum of Art appointed Lucian Simmons as its first head of provenance research.
- Kazakhstan’s art scene is showing significant potential for growth.
Bearish News
- Tasmania’s Museum of Old and New Art faces a lawsuit for gender exclusion in its Ladies Lounge installation.
- Sotheby’s must unveil auction clients in a Holocaust-related case involving a Tiepolo painting.
- Hong Kong’s art scene has faced increasing repression, prompting artists to flee.
- Damien Hirst’s formaldehyde artworks faced scrutiny over their actual creation dates.
- The Andy Warhol Foundation settled for $21,000 in a copyright case involving a Prince portrait.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Let’s go to Kazakhstan.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- A restored 1956 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing coupe sold for $3.4 million, setting a world record.
- A 1979 Pontiac Firebird Trans Am, used in Steve McQueen’s last film, is up for auction.
- Mike Tyson’s former Range Rover limo is up for auction.
- The Midwest Dream Car Collection added a rare 1948 Tucker 48, one of only 47 remaining.
- The first-ever McLaren Elva, chassis 001, will be auctioned on May 11, 2024, with just 5 miles on the odometer.
- The Porsche 911 is the UK’s most searched classic car, with 74,000 monthly searches.
Bearish News
- The Automobilia Monterey event was canceled this year due to vendor fatigue and rising costs.
- Nigel Havers is auctioning his classic Jaguar E-Type due to concerns over pothole damage.
- Three classic cars were stolen from a locked parking lot in Garfield Heights. [Ed: Nicholas Cage was unavailable for comment]
- A Stratford classic car restoration shop was fined $95,000 for altering VIN numbers on car parts.
- The Marietta Vintage Motors website in Ohio has allegedly scammed vintage car buyers.
- Jay Leno suffered multiple broken bones from a motorcycle crash.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
There’s a long list of things you can change without consequence.
VIN numbers are not on that list.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Florida treasure hunters discovered a trove of 300-year-old silver coins worth around $5,000.
- A retired carpenter’s rare coin collection is expected to fetch £15,000 at auction.
- The “King of American Coins,” an 1804 silver dollar, fetched $8 million at auction.
- The D.L. Hansen Collection has been set for auction.
- The Perth Mint’s bullion sales rebounded in February 2024, with silver and gold sales reaching multi-month highs.
- Stack’s Bowers Galleries will auction the L. E. Bruun Collection, the most valuable collection of world coins ever.
Bearish News
- Counterfeit 1921-D Walking Liberty half dollars are circulating online, with instances of sales over $2,000 on eBay.
- Two historic gold medals, valued at €400,000, were stolen from the Maritime Museum by a man posing as an educator.
- A Shady Valley man faces 28 felony charges after stolen motorcycles led to the discovery of drugs, firearms, and rare coins.
- A Texas postal employee was sentenced to 37 months for stealing coins from the mail.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Avoid fraud, and study the finer details of the 1921-D Walking Liberties before purchasing.
Farmland
Bullish News
- USDA investments doubled the number of farms selling to local markets from 2017 to 2022.
- Nebraska’s agricultural land values increased by five percent in 2024, reaching $4,015 per acre.
- US agricultural exports reached $174.9 billion in 2023, bolstered by new markets and the removal of tariffs.
- Agricultural lending by US farm banks increased to $110 billion in 2023, with 98.1% of farm banks profitable.
- Nestlé announced an agroforestry project to plant over two million shade trees in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Bearish News
- The ag-tech sector experienced a 60% decline in VC funding since late 2021.
- New York State lost nearly 2,800 farms and 364,000 acres of farmland since 2017.
- The EPA’s new tailpipe standard could lead to a 50% decrease in corn prices.
- The George Foundation sold a 1,500-acre tract of farmland for a housing development in a significant land use shift.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Keep your eyes on the EPA.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- LVMH became Europe’s most valuable company.
- eBay expanded into luxury apparel consignment, offering up to 80% commission on high-end brand sales.
- Audemars Piguet collaborated with John Mayer and opened a new space in Milan.
- Mejuri is becoming a celebrity favorite for its minimalist pieces.
Bearish News
- Kering issued a profit warning, forecasting a 10% sales decline due to stalled sales in Asia.
- Ted Baker’s impending collapse lead to broader luxury market distress, erasing over $30 billion in market value.
- HSBC lowered LVMH’s price target to €845.
- Gucci’s sales dropped by 20% in the first quarter.
- The value of lost or stolen luxury watches has reached over $1.9 billion, with a tripling in reports last year.
- Hermes faced a class-action lawsuit over its sales practices, requiring customers to have a “sufficient purchase history.”
- Nearly $2 million in Hermès handbags were stolen from a Miami Beach store.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
I wonder if the Hermes thieves tried buying legally first.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Massive growth is expected for Rice Wine.
- Speakeasy Co.’s Liquid Library has seen significant growth.
- Whisky Hammer’s 100th auction featured over 5,000 lots.
- Victoria launched a $1.2 million pilot program to elevate its distillery industry through specialized training.
- Craft producers are investing in label premiumization to stand out on shelves with visual, tactile, and smart features.
- Premiere Napa Valley’s rare and collaborative lots attracted over $3 million in bids.
Bearish News
- Wine sales are still declining due to wellness trends.
- The Indiana Wine Grape Council dissolved, threatening the state’s wine industry growth.
- Champagne sales reached a two-decade low in 2023, with 27 million fewer bottles sold than projected.
- Omar Khan’s wine tastings were charged with fraud, leading to him fleeing the country.
- Online bourbon scams have increased.
- The Michigan Liquor Control Commission audit findings revealed nearly a million dollars in missing booze.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
On Friday we shared three investing ideas–one each for tequila, whisky, and mezcal.
If you’re an accredited investor looking for ideas to diversify your portfolio and improve returns, check it out.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Warner Music India made a strategic investment to expand in the central Indian music market.
- Universal Music Group and Republic Records launched Boombox on Roblox.
- Musicians generated over $16.4 million in commission-free sales through Bandzoogle in 2023.
- Tencent Music’s subscription revenues increased by 45.3% in Q4, with 106.7 million paying subscribers.
- Taylor Swift’s ‘Eras Tour’ film became Disney+’s most-streamed music special ever.
- 16.2 million hours viewed in 3 days [Ed: not bad]
- WavMaker, a music licensing platform, launched with $5 million in seed funding.
- Britney Spears’ chainmail halter top from “The X Factor” 2012 is expected to auction for up to $25,000.
Bearish News
- Metallica’s insurance lawsuit over COVID-cancelled concerts was rejected due to a “communicable diseases” exclusion.
- A Danish man received an 18-month prison sentence for using bots to generate up to 3 billion fake streams.
- Chinese film mogul Hui Qin admitted to making illegal donations to NY politicians, facing up to 27 years in prison.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Taylor has somehow found another record to break.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Silver Bullion’s vault, The Safe House, increased its insurance to S$1 billion.
- Wisconsin eliminated sales taxes on precious metals, becoming the 44th state to do so.
- Gold futures reached an all-time high of $2,184.70 per oz.
- Aluminium’s role in the energy transition has driven record-high demand,
- Dundee Precious Metals insiders purchased $818,000 of stock.
Bearish News
- The EV revolution is still wreaking havoc on platinum and palladium demand.
- Indonesia’s nickel production has surged.
- This has pushed global prices to near three-year lows, with a 47% price fall in 2023.
- A jewelry factory supervisor was arrested for stealing gold, silver, and platinum.
- Montana issued a scam warning about cold-call precious metals investment offers.
- The UN deep-sea mining body is considering expelling Greenpeace after activists disrupted a research expedition.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
I’m not sure what it’ll take for Nickel to rebound
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Sports card grading volume increased by 25% in February compared to last year.
- Sotheby’s Sports Week auction is expected to feature memorabilia worth up to $12 million.
- Certified Collectibles Group acquired James Spence Authentication.
- Topps released the first-ever March Madness trading cards.
- Chet Holmgren’s autographed rookie card sold for a record $144,000.
- Kobe Bryant’s 2000 Lakers championship ring is up for auction, with bids reaching $94,000.
- A Steve Jobs-autographed business card sold for $181,183, setting a new record.
Bearish News
- Two of Los Angeles’s oldest comic book stores, Geoffrey’s Comics and Hi De-Ho Comics, have closed.
- The sale of Nazi memorabilia in a Kokomo antique store has drawn criticism from the Anti-Defamation League.
- A violent robbery at a Michigan comic book store led to the arrest of two men through DNA evidence.
- Epic Games is facing a class action lawsuit for allegedly exploiting children’s data in Fortnite.
- The ”MX Rock” restock might signal the end of the Yeezy Boost 350 V2 era as Adidas clears existing stock.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
How is your bracket looking?
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- The Global Domain Report revealed ‘buy now’ domain sales hit 73% in 2023, with .com, .de, and .ai as top sellers.
- Google added Ethereum Name Service domains to search results.
- Team Internet acquired Shinez for $41.8 million.
- MJ.com is being offered on Rally.
- The listing has an IPO Market Cap of $950,000 and opportunities to purchase fractional ownership.
- Airmax.com is up for sale for the first time in 30 years.
Bearish News
- Digital Domain Holdings’ share price plummeted 12% this week, marking a five-year loss of 76%.
- Squarespace CEO sold over $6.6 million in company stock.
- Google’s algorithm changes have reduced the visibility of content in Euskera, favoring Spanish results.
- The .ai registry has advised against using GoDaddy for domain transfers.
- The US Treasury Department sanctioned Russian firms for operating 60+ fake websites as part of a disinformation campaign.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
The choice between learning Spanish and Euskera just got a bit easier.
That’s all for this week
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
