Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Yellen is Bullish
- Real Estate: CRE is still struggling
- Startups: ElevenLabs hits unicorn status
- Private Credit: Oil and gas returns are hurting
- Crypto: MetaMask launches staking
- NFTs: BAYC wins a legal battle
- Art: MoMA is being sued
- Vintage Autos: Some cherry rides up for auction
- Coins: A Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Sells For $600k
- Farmland: It could be a record year for corn
- Luxury: Retail rents in Manhattan still lag behind
- Wine and Spirits: Saudia Arabia opens its first liquor store
- Film & Music: Netflix had a record-breaking Q4
- Precious Metals: A major US Aluminum operation shuts down
- Collectibles: Several million dollar comic sales
- Websites: .ru domain sales increase
Let’s go.
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- The US GDP increased by 3.3% in Q4 2024.
- Treasury Secretary Yellen is bullish on the economy in 2024.
- Both oil and gold are up as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.
- Historical patterns predict another better-than-average year for the S&P 500.
- Layoffs remain at historically low levels.
- Japan’s private sector is growing again.
Bearish News
- Iran bombed a US outpost in Jordan over the weekend, killing three American soldiers and wounding more than 30. Several Republican senators and representatives called for direct action against Tehran.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index hit a two-decade low.
- Over half of ECB staff rated President Christine Lagarde’s performance as negative.
- Moody’s outlook on Asia-Pacific’s sovereign credit is negative.
- Turkey’s central bank raised interest rates to 45%.
- Germany’s inflation rate soared to 5.9% in 2023, the highest since 1992.
- 2024 is not off to a strong start for Canada.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
ALTS 1 Fund news:
Q4 report is out this week
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Brooklyn’s real estate market has seen a boom in sustainable development.
- Goldman Sachs predicts a 5% rise in US home prices this year.
- Zillow predicts a 3.7% increase in home values for 2024.
- Dallas led the US in commercial property sales for the third year in a row.
- Things seem to be going quite well for this tokenized real estate startup.
- Boston’s Seaport District will introduce its first all-affordable housing project.
Bearish News
- A Manhattan real estate broker agreed to a $260,000 settlement for charging excessive finder’s fees.
- The US home price-to-income ratio reached a record high of 5.6 in 2022, up from 4.1 in 2019.
- 50% of US renters now spend over 30% of their income on housing
- Nearly half pay more than 50%.
- Commercial real estate prices are expected to drop by another 10% in 2024.
- CMBS loan distress spiked in the second half of 2023.
- $100 billion was added to the watchlist, a 110% increase from the first half of 2023.
How to invest in real estate right now:
No way prices are rising 5% this year.
Startups
Bullish News
- ElevenLabs reached unicorn status after its most recent fundraising.
- Reports are out that Elon Musk’s xAI is trying to raise $6 billion, but he denies it.
- Knoxville’s clean energy startups got a lift from the DOE’s $10 million voucher program.
- Colorado’s quantum tech sector is set to expand following new tax credits and loan guarantees.
- NEXT Life Sciences raised $2.5 million in seed funding for innovative male contraception technology.
- The founders of Skype and Wise raised a $436 million fund to try to build Europe’s next tech giants.
Bearish News
- Google laid off over 1,000 employees despite record profits.
- JPMorgan downgraded Coinbase’s stock to underweight. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer upgraded it. 🤷
- The UK is doing its best to torpedo its angel investing economy.
- GitLab had a security disaster, with 5,300 servers left vulnerable for 13 days.
- Shein’s valuation dropped 30%.
How to invest in startups right now:
Short the UK startups ecosystem.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- 2024 has already seen quite a few megadeals.
- Private credit is expected to reach $2.7 trillion by 2027
- This is a dramatic rise from $250 billion in 2010.
- Blackstone launched a $10 billion opportunistic credit fund.
- The Asia Pacific wealth management market is set to grow from $18.50 trillion in 2023 to $33.00 trillion by 2028.
- RXR Realty and Ares Management launched a $1 billion fund to revitalize distressed Manhattan office properties.
Bearish News
- PE oil and gas investments are yielding lower returns as the shift to renewables accelerates.
- Macy’s Inc. rejected a $5.8 billion takeover offer from Arkhouse and Brigade Capital.
- Oregon’s pension fund faces pressure to divest from a $350 million LNG project based on environmental concerns.
- The risk of investors seeking clawbacks is rising.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Move to Asia.
Crypto
Here’s what you need to know:
Bullish News
- Bakkt expanded its crypto trading to Brazil, Guatemala, Spain, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
- 70% of Grayscale GBTC investors are in profit.
- The crypto industry saw 62 million new users in 2023.
- MetaMask introduced an Ethereum staking feature with a 4% annual yield.
- Polymer Labs secured $23 million in Series A funding for their Ethereum’s interoperability solutions.
- Asia is embracing tokenized securities.
Bearish News
- Technical Analysts are bearish on Litecoin.
- A FINRA report found 70% of crypto firm communications could violate investor protection rules.
- A crypto investor lost $2.34 million to a phishing scam involving $SUPER tokens.
- Yet another major Twitter account hack…
- This time, the Algorand Foundation’s CEO had her account hacked, causing a 7% fall in trading volumes.
- OKX’s token suffered a 50% flash crash.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Change your Twitter password.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Cristiano Ronaldo hosted his NFT holders for a friendly football match.
- NFTs are making a corporate comeback.
- Cardano NFTs are heating up.
- DEAPcoin jumped 115% in the past 3 months.
- The token is necessary for purchasing NFTs within the PlayMining platform.
- A CryptoPunk just sold for $507,617.
- The gaming NFT token PROM surged 36.3% in only 24 hours.
Bearish News
- The Full Send Metacard NFT by the NELK Boys lost 75% of its value, affecting over 7,000 holders.
- Canadian mutual funds now have new investment restrictions, including a ban on NFTs.
- The XRP community is being targeted by scammers, with fraudulent emails specifically aimed at OpenSea users.
- South Korea’s KT Corporation shut down its NFT platform.
- Bored Ape NFT copycats were ordered to pay Yuga Labs $7 million in legal fees.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Make some degen Cardano NFT trades.
Artwork
Bullish News
- The Metropolitan Museum of Art sold a George Washington portrait for $2.8 million.
- The British Museum and V&A loaned 32 gold regalia items to Ghana, the country they were stolen from 150 years ago. the museums ain’t getting them back.
- Singapore’s annual art conference saw a 40% rise in high-net-worth attendees.
- The Georgia Museum of Art received a record $1,085,000 grant from the Elizabeth Firestone Graham Foundation.
Bearish News
- A fire in Abkhazia destroyed 4,000 artworks, including pieces by Alexander Chachba-Shervashidze.
- The Orlando Museum of Art is facing a budget deficit of up to $1 million after a fake Basquiat exhibit led to unforeseen legal expenses.
- MoMA is being sued for not preventing groping incidents during a 2010 exhibit.
- Richard Prince’s galleries settled two copyright lawsuits for using photographers’ work without permission.
- The Art Institute of Chicago faces a controversy over a Schiele painting.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Don’t display fake art.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Mecum Kissimmee’s 2024 auto auction hit a record sale of $275 million, continuing a trend of surpassing $200 million for three years.
- A gorgeous 1966 Aston Martin DB6 Vantage is coming to auction.
- Meanwhile, a 1993 Jaguar XJ220, a former speed record-holder, hit the auction block with an estimated value of up to $600,000.
- A pair of neglected sportscars, including a rare AC Aceca, garnered over £100,000 at auction.
Bearish News
- A Florida classic car dealer filed for bankruptcy amid a fraud probe, with over $4 million in debts and nearly 100 creditors, including many unpaid customers.
- The collector car market has retracted to December 2019 values, with the Hagerty Market Rating falling for nine months.
- California’s classic car scene may shrink due to proposed zero-emission zones limiting classic car use.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Move your collection out of California.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Three different gold coins fetched more than $1 million at the recent Heritage Signature auction.
- A 7-kilogram gold coin for Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee sold for $660,000 at Stack’s Bowers Galleries.
- Croatia’s National Bank released limited-edition Trsat Dragon coins on January 24th, offering 100 gold and 5,000 silver pieces.
Bearish News
- Kosovo enforced a currency change, giving ethnic Serbs two weeks to drop the dinar.
- Scythian gold and other historical items were seized at the Estonian-Russian border.
- The $4 Stella coin, once aimed at international trade, never caught on and is now infamous for its link to congressmen’s scandalous activities.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
See if you have any Queen Elizabeth II’s lying around.
Farmland
Bullish News
- US farmers are on track for a record harvest, with corn at 15.39 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.48 billion bushels.
- Wisconsin’s farmers markets received a USDA grant of $640,000 to attract new customers to over 300 markets.
- Pennsylvania invested over $2.232 million in agriculture research, focusing on organic farming and sustainable energy.
- Vertical farming innovator Intelligent Growth Solutions raised £ 22.5 million.
Bearish News
- A verdict of $2.25 billion was reached against Bayer for Roundup’s cancer risks.
- Six California regions, including the Cuyama Valley with its basin dropping nearly 5 feet per year, are among the fastest-depleting aquifers globally.
- The expansion of crop insurance subsidies, with an annual cost of almost $600 million, faces resistance.
- Over 270 wastewater permit violations in two months were recorded at the Port of Morrow, worsening Oregon’s groundwater pollution.
- Urban-grown produce has a carbon footprint six times larger than traditional farming.
- Florida’s farmland is projected to shrink by 2.2 million acres by 2070.
- By 2026, France’s farming workforce is expected to decrease by 40% due to retirements.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Make sure your Florida farms will still be here in 30 years.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- LVMH’s Q4 sales jumped by 10%, adding $70 billion to the luxury market’s value.
- Kering purchased a 115,000 sq. ft luxury property on NYC’s Fifth Avenue for $963 million.
- The Louis Vuitton and Timberland partnership released boots starting at $1,150, aiming to revitalize Timberland after a 10% revenue drop.
- Coupang’s market share in South Korea climbed to 22.5% in 2022 from 5.8% in 2017.
- Secondary luxury watch brand ChronoFinder’s annual revenue hit £5.5 million.
Bearish News
- Balenciaga continues to struggle two years after its controversial ad despite apologies and restructuring.
- In 2023, Salvatore Ferragamo’s revenues dropped by 7.6%, with retail sales down 10.8%.
- LVMH’s men’s fashion shows featured more handbags amid a luxury leather goods sales growth of just 3-4%, the lowest in ten years.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Men, it might be time to start wearing purses.
Wine and Spirits
Bullish News
- Saudi Arabia opened its first alcohol store.
- Pope Francis, speaking to 100 wine producers, declared wine “a universal gift.”
- Rye whiskey sales have doubled to $356 million in 2022, with a 1,275% volume increase since 2009.
- Former Patrón executives launched a new spirits venture.
- Vinovest introduced a Whiskey Fund.
- Kirin executives expect a Japanese Whiskey renaissance.
Bearish News
- Rhode Island is fighting to keep out-of-state wine deliveries banned.
- Illinois’ liquor tax revenue dropped last year.
- Over 30 Oregon breweries shut down in 2023.
- The wine industry saw a 3% sales drop last year, continuing a three-year decline due to waning interest from younger generations.
- LVMH’s wine and spirits sector fell 7% to €6.602 billion in 2023, the only LVMH sector to decline.
- The Twin Cities’ craft beverage industry is shrinking.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Start studying up on Japanese Whiskey.
There are three spots left on our investor trip to Tequila in February. Join us, won’t you?
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Two bizarre film posters cleaned up at Heritage.
- Primary Wave Music acquired Scott Weiland’s music catalog, including 16 Top 10 singles and over 40 million albums sold.
- Beatdapp secured a partnership with Universal Music Group and raised $17 million to protect music streaming revenues.
- Netflix added 13.1 million subscribers in Q4 2023, its biggest-ever fourth-quarter increase.
- Lim Young Woong donated his ‘Picnic’ royalties to charity.
- ClicknClear struck a licensing deal with Warner Chappell Music, accessing 1.3 million works for a $2.4 billion market.
- India’s music streaming market hit a trillion streams in 2023.
- Apple Music now pays up to 10% higher royalties for Spatial Audio tracks.
Bearish News
- Australians lost over $135,000 to scams involving Taylor Swift’s tour tickets.
- Hipgnosis Songs Fund’s share price fell due to the investment advisor’s call option issue.
- ZEEL’s shares dropped 20% after its $10 billion merger with Sony failed.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Start uploading Spatial Audio tracks.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Sumitomo Metal Mining invested $14.4 million in FPX Nickel Corp. for its Baptiste Nickel Project and corporate initiatives.
- H2 Green Steel raised €6.5 billion for a sustainable green steel plant in Sweden.
- Freeport-McMoRan expects consistent demand for copper and gold in 2024.
- The metal fiber market is set to grow to $6.2 billion by 2028, driven by automotive and aerospace demand.
- Brazil’s mining royalties are expected to recover.
- 42 states have exempted gold and silver purchases from sales tax.
Bearish News
- South Dakota’s 10% lithium tax proposal may repel investors.
- The shutdown of Magnitude 7 Metals marks a downturn in US aluminum production.
- The mining supercycle driven by EV battery demand may fall short of expectations.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Might be time to take a break from EV-specific metals.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Some massive results at Heritage’s signature auction:
- Superman #1 CGC 7.0 went for $2.3 million
- All-Star Comics #8 (origin of Wonder Woman) CGC 9.4 went for $1.5 million.
- Spider-Man #1 CGC 9.8 went for $1.4 million.
- Rubik’s Cube is celebrating 50 years.
- Generation Z’s is still obsessed with Stanley Cups, with resale prices hitting up to $400.
- Following eight Oscar nods for the Barbie film, the Barbie resale market is expected to see a surge.
- A Caitlin Clark trading card broke records with a $78,000 sale, indicating a spike in women’s sports memorabilia value.
- A signed 2pac concert ticket went for nearly $10k.
Bearish News
- Chris Kinney, a former Olympian, had his Roswell home burglarized, losing Olympic memorabilia.
- The UK saw a £200 million drop in toy sales in 2023
- eBay announced layoffs of about 1,000 employees.
- Pokémon is investigating Palworld over IP concerns.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Use AI to solve your Rubik’s cube.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Peace.com was sold for $400,000 through Sedo. Presumably, there was no bidding war.
- Over 50,000 .ai domains were sold in three months.
- Insure.ai and dog.ai both sold for over $20,000.
- The Australian Ecommerce market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.64%.
Bearish News
- The NSA purchased web browsing data without warrants.
- Nearly 20% of UDRP complaints in 2023 were denied for reverse domain name hijacking.
- New Zealand’s .nz domain registrations saw a 1.6% drop, the largest decline on record.
- All 10 of the top English-language news websites faced declining traffic in December.
- MSN reported a 25% traffic drop,
- CNN reported a 16% drop.
- VexTrio, a malicious traffic broker, now controls over 70,000 domains.
- The rise in .ru domain registrations is attributed to sanctions, not organic growth, as Russians localize their web presence.
- A spike in fraudulent Afternic listing emails has domain investors worried about unauthorized asset sales and transfers.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Assume the NSA is watching… always.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
