Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
New for 2024, this is your customized look at the alt-investing landscape.
From now on, you’ll only see topics you’ve told us you want to know more about.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Construction spending continues to grow
- Real Estate: All cash sales on the rise in Manhattan
- Startups: Airbnb makes a major acquisition
- Private Credit: Blackstone completed a $2 billion investment
- Crypto: Solana’s stablecoin volume exceeds Ethereum’s
- NFTs: Mickey Mouse takes center stage
- Art: Insurance programs expand their limits
- Vintage Autos: Michael Jordan’s old cars are up for grabs
- Coins: A $10,000, $10 eagle
- Farmland: Precision farming keeps on keeping on
- Luxury: Luxury furniture is having a moment
- Wine and Spirits: Dwayne Wade flexed on everybody
- Film & Music: Everyone suddenly wants to own Oppenheimer
- Precious Metals: Lab-grown diamonds become even more popular
- Collectibles: Rare books are back in the spotlight
- Websites: Vitalik inadvertently pumps ENS
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Because you haven’t added any specialist topics, you’ll only see this macro view today.
If you want a concise view of last week’s real estate, startups, crypto, PE, VC, luxury items, music and film investing, collectibles, art, wine and spirits, and/or vintage autos news, click this button. 👇
[TODO replace data wrapper coverage of major indexes]
Bullish News
- The U.S. labor market added 216,000 jobs in December, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. This blew out expectations and could delay Fed rate cuts.
- Likewise, applications for unemployment benefits fell again.
- Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukraine’s wartime economy has shown surprising resilience.
- The US Congress has reached an agreement on a spending bill.
- J.P. Morgan suggests the risk of a U.S. recession has been mitigated, citing falling inflation and a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy.
- India’s real GDP growth for 2023-24 is estimated at 7.3%, outpacing projections.
- Investors are bullish on Asia in 2024.
- Construction spending in the U.S. grew for the 11th consecutive month, bolstered by strong residential building.
Bearish News
- China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in December.
- The official PMI fell to 49, signaling persistent economic sluggishness.
- The US national debt reached a record $34 trillion on December 29th.
- The US consumer is racking up phantom debt.
What are the odds?
There’s a wide variance between the Kalshi markets and the CME prediction tool. If you think the pros have it right, you can get $25 to play around with on Kalshi.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
ALTS 1 Fund news:
We wrapped up a pretty good 2023 and will have our Q4 report out soon.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Manhattan’s real estate market saw a record-high 67.9% of all-cash home sales in Q4 2023.
- Despite a challenging housing market, 4.5 million people managed to buy homes in 2023.
- Commercial real estate financing is expected to rebound in 2024. [Ed note: lolz]
- Despite the higher interest rates, investors are gravitating towards 5-year CMBS conduit loans, with a 45% representation in 2023’s CMBS issuance.
- State lawmakers in Idaho are seeking to limit property tax increases as home values soar.
- US REITs closed 2023 with a strong Q4, outperforming the broader market.
Bearish News
- CBRE forecasts a decline in office rents by up to 4% in 2024. [Ed note: seems optimistic]
- China’s housing inventory overhang could take more than 10 years to correct.
- A US-based prop-tech company, Frontdesk, laid off its entire workforce of 200 employees via a two-minute video call.
- Office loan delinquencies reached a five-year high in 2023, with Moody’s predicting further increases due to maturing debt and higher borrowing costs.
- The National Housing Conference reports housing affordability is at its worst.
- The report claims that a registered nurse can afford a home in only 90 of 360 markets.
- WeWork seeks to reject more leases, totaling 81 since its bankruptcy filing.
- The goal is to cut annual rent payments by $500 million.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Don’t rent to WeWork.
Startups
Bullish News
- NYC-based startups had a pretty good 2023, with LeafLink and Avenue One both raising $100M
- The VC investment market is projected to reach $1068.5 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 20%.
- Airbnb’s acquisition of AI startup GamePlanner.AI for around $200 million was its first purchase as a public company.
- Exponent Founders Capital, led by Plaid and Robinhood alums, raised $75 million to invest in early-stage startups.
- Companies like Reddit, Shein, and Stripe are expected to lead a revived IPO market in 2024.
- DoorDash is planning to expand beyond its core restaurant delivery business in the US.
Bearish News
- Israeli cybersecurity startups had a tough year, with overall funding down 41% in 2023 to $1.89 billion.
- Gig workers are finding the golden age of delivery apps like Instacart and DoorDash is over.
- Increased competition and lower pay have pushed many towards traditional 9-to-5 jobs.
- U.S. venture capital fundraising hit a six-year low in 2023.
- Peloton’s stock surge following a TikTok deal may be overblown.
- The fitness company’s market cap increase of $270 million seems disconnected from the reality of potential subscription conversions.
- Coatue Management is closing its London office, signaling a retreat from European startup investments.
- Countdown Capital, an early-stage hard tech firm, is shutting down.
How to invest in startups right now:
I’m still super bullish on early-stage companies in 2024. I think it’s going to be a great vintage.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- PE groups are exploring new exit strategies as traditional avenues become less viable, and cash reserves keep growing.
- The private renewables M&A market is expected to rebound.
- Funds are eyeing opportunities in battery storage and renewable natural gas sectors.
- The private credit market is evolving with opportunities across the risk-return spectrum, and assets are expected to grow to $2.3 trillion by 2027.
- PE funds are borrowing against themselves.
- Blackstone has completed a $2.16 billion investment in NIPSCO. The fund is bullish on decarbonization and the reindustrialization of the Midwest.
- EdgeCore Digital Infrastructure has secured a $1.9 billion debt financing for its data center campus in Mesa, Arizona.
Bearish News
- Patient care is riskier at hospitals owned by PE firms.
- New regulatory pressures for private equity in 2024 include the SEC’s Private Fund Advisers Rule.
- Private credit may pose systemic risks.
- A court brawl involving PE firms and the SEC has rattled the industry.
- The private fund rule debate continues.
- Investor groups and pension funds support the SEC against a lawsuit by PE firms, emphasizing the need for enhanced disclosures and fair treatment of investors.
- Bermuda’s financial authority is closely monitoring PE-owned insurers.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Short private credit.
Crypto
Here’s what you need to know:
Bitcoin rebounded a bit after last week’s profit-taking. An ETF remains imminent.
Bullish News
- Binance’s CEO, Richard Teng, is confident users still trust his platform despite a hefty $4.3 billion fine for AML regulation violations.
- Coinbase plans to offer crypto derivatives in the EU, aiming to acquire a company with a MiFID II license to facilitate regulated trading.
- Solana’s blockchain saw a record $100 billion in stablecoin volume, surpassing Ethereum, along with increased activity from inscriptions and meme-coins.
- A massive transfer of 59.9 million Dogecoins, valued at approximately $5 million, was sent to Coinbase from an unknown wallet.
- Indian crypto exchanges saw a surge in trading volumes following FIU’s action on global exchanges.
- CoinDCX saw a 2000% increase in crypto deposits.
- Grayscale, VanEck, and ARK registered their Bitcoin ETFs to trade on exchanges, pending SEC approval.
- The Sei Network’s SEIYAN meme coin, inspired by Dragon Ball, increased 43% in a week, reaching a $1.6 billion market cap.
- Baltimore is looking at blockchain to tackle its vacant housing crisis, with a pilot program aiming to streamline property transactions and ownership records.
Bearish News
- The US courts have once again denied Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s request to travel abroad.
- Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest sold a significant portion of its Coinbase shares.
- USDC’s stablecoin momentarily depegged to $0.74 on Binance due to a large sell order amid low liquidity.
- DeFi security is under scrutiny.
- Researchers from CertiK suggest the industry may not be ready for the next crypto bull run.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Triple-check your wallet security before things get too crazy again.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Solana’s NFT market surged in December, outpacing Ethereum with $366.5 million in sales
- This nearly matches its all-time high from October 2021.
- Despite regulatory challenges, NuggetRush has seen steady growth.
- Its virtual P2E gaming crypto raised over $1.45 million in presale revenue.
- Mickey Mouse NFTs dominated OpenSea as ‘Steamboat Willie’ entered the public domain.
- One collection topped $1.2 million in trading volume. [Ed note: idiots]
- Chiliz built a multi-chain NFT launchpad with Rarible integration, aiming to enhance SportFi dApps and NFT marketplaces on the Chiliz Chain.
- Megadeth launched an exclusive NFT collection, offering fans unique privileges and partial IP rights, with a 5000-piece generative series.
- Polygon’s NFT sales boomed in December 2023, hitting $47 million, largely driven by the Gas Hero game from Find Satoshi Labs.
Bearish News
- The UK’s first investigation into a virtual sexual assault in the metaverse has begun.
- Logan Paul has initiated a $2.3 million refund program for his CryptoZoo NFT game, following a year of unfulfilled promises to compensate investors after the project failed to launch.
- Nest Wallet’s CEO, Bill Lou, fell victim to a $125k phishing scam involving a fake LFG token airdrop campaign on the Solana Network, highlighting a rise in airdrop scams.
- A new tax law requiring crypto transactions over $10K to be reported to the IRS has confused crypto users.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Poke around on Polygon and Solana 🛒
Artwork
Bullish News
- British Pop artist Pauline Boty is finally gaining recognition, breaking her auction record with “With Love to Jean-Paul Belmondo” selling for £1.2 million at Sotheby’s.
- The art world anticipates more work for art lawyers in 2024, especially around new technology and copyright issues.
- Distinguished Programs expanded its Fine Art and Collectibles insurance program to a $100 million limit.
- The McWhorter Foundation announced a landmark $25 million contribution to the conservation and preservation of extraordinary art and collectibles.
Bearish News
- Major auction houses like Christie’s and Sotheby’s reported a combined total of $14.2 billion in sales for 2023, a 13% decrease from $16.4 billion in 2022.
- Christie’s saw a 20% decline in its total sales, dropping from $8.4 billion in 2022 to $6.2 billion in 2023
- Sotheby’s sales remained stable at $8 billion.
- Phillips auction house reported a 15% drop in sales to $840.7 million in 2023 from $1 billion the previous year.
- Its top five works sold for $87.6 million, down 50% from $173 million in 2022.
- The digitization of auction information and the financialization of trophy lots may be contributing to a more complex understanding of the art market.
- A Velázquez painting, “Isabel de Borbón, Queen of Spain,” was withdrawn from a Sotheby’s auction due to “ongoing discussions” among the sellers, despite being ‘guaranteed’ to sell for around $35 million.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I love the story on Boty. I’m super bullish on female artists in 2024.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- A 1961 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Roadster, with its original engine and gearbox, is expected to fetch up to $1.8 million at Worldwide Auctioneers’ Scottsdale sale.
- A rare 1966 Ford GT40 MkI Road Car, once owned by Ford, is hitting the auction block with an estimated value of up to $7 million.
- The classic car market is adapting to the online world, with platforms like Car and Classic running continuous online auctions.
- Michael Jordan’s former vehicles, a 1991 BMW 850i and a 1999 Range Rover, are up for bids, with the BMW already reaching over $60,000.
- A psychedelic 2015 Porsche 918 “Weissach” Spyder is expected to fetch more than $2.3 million at Sotheby’s Sealed auction.
- According to Classic Driver, trending collector cars to watch in 2024 include the 1990s BMW Tourings, the Bentley Continental GT, and the Ferrari 348.
Bearish News
- Collectors say you should avoid the Maserati Biturbo due to its notorious build quality issues and expensive maintenance, making it a classic car to avoid.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Cars from the 1980s, while ugly, are becoming more popular.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- A hoard of 2,000-year-old Kushan coins was discovered at Mohenjo-Daro.
- Interest in rare coins continues to bounce back.
- The upcoming ‘JAMCOIN 2024’ exhibition in Jamshedpur will showcase rare coins, including British India and Hyderabad princely state coins.
- A coin collector revealed a dime worth 1000x its face value due to a mintmark detail.
- Heritage Auctions sold two tough 1870s Philadelphia Mint $10 eagles for $10,800 and $19,200.
- Stephen Album Rare Coins’ auction will feature a 1921 Chinese Pavilion dollar, one of the most sought-after coins in Chinese numismatics.
- The 2023 Mint Set regained its top spot in U.S. Mint sales, with a total of 165,583 sets sold, nearing its maximum mintage.
Bearish News
- A theft in Marble Cliff resulted in over $500,000 worth of rare coins stolen, with two arrests made.
- Bellevue Rare Coins voices concern over the lack of progress in a robbery investigation, offering a $5,000 reward for information leading to an arrest.
- Sheffield police seek assistance after the theft of over 40 specialty collector coins, including rare £5 coins and silver Britannia coins, from a city center office.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Theft is the bane of coin collecting. There must be a profitable solution for this.
Farmland
Bullish News
- The global precision farming market is expected to grow at a resilient 11.9% CAGR.
- The agrochemicals market is projected to reach $509.72 billion by 2032.
- The Missouri farmland market is booming, with prices reaching $4,500 per acre.
- Start-ups are blending food production with electricity generation, with agrivoltaics at the forefront.
- Farmers Edge and LTIMindtree have launched the Farmers Edge Innovation Lab in Mumbai,
- They aim to redefine agriculture in India by integrating cutting-edge AgTech with global digital solutions expertise.
- The UK government has introduced the biggest upgrade to farming schemes since leaving the EU.
Bearish News
- English farmers accused ministers of breaking pledges over a £227 million underspend in agricultural funding.
- Debates are brewing in Nebraska over the ownership and impact of out-of-state investors on local water resources.
- The Iowa Legislature may tighten laws on foreign ownership of farmland.
- The proposals would remove exemptions, increase reporting, and enhance enforcement.
- Missouri’s Governor bans the sale of farmland near military facilities to adversarial nations.
- After Storm Henk, UK farmers are urging the government to invest in stronger river defenses to protect farmland.
- They are calling for compensation for fields sacrificed to prevent urban flooding.
- Geohazards are on the rise.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Budget for a few natural disasters in your plan.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- The digital avatar market is creating new opportunities for fashion brands.
- Gucci and Valentino are investing in virtual influencers and in-game characters.
- This market is expected to reach $156.19 billion by 2032.
- The luxury furniture market is forecasted to grow to $42.7 billion by 2032.
- Luxury brands like Sotheby’s, Rolex, and Chanel are returning to NYC’s Fifth and Madison Avenues.
- Luxury hospitality is booming in China.
- Brands like Hermès and Dior are now offering branded cafés.
- Chanel, Hermès, and Prada are set to increase prices this year.
- Hikes are expected across jewelry, watches, and leather goods.
Bearish News
- The rush to buy high-end timepieces like Rolex and Patek Philippe has cooled off.
- Swiss watch exports hit almost $28.5 billion in 2022 but now are facing a downturn.
- Luxury brands continue to struggle with a shortage of sales associates for their stores.
- Women in China are shifting their spending from personal luxury goods to jewelry and travel.
- Fewer than 20% are now interested in purchasing high-end handbags, whereas the figure was nearly 50% in 2023.
- The luxury sector is set for a slowdown in price growth.
- Rolex is fined $100 million by the French Competition Authority for its ban on online sales.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Front-run the luxury digital avatar boom if you’re bullish on that. The luxury market feels very weird to me in general right now.
Wine and Spirits
Bullish News
- The United States East Coast Vineyards are becoming more influential in the wine world.
- Whisky is wooing young Chinese consumers away from traditional ‘baijiu.’
- Top distillers are targeting the growing market with new pure-malt whisky offerings.
- The red wine market is projected to grow from $106.52 billion in 2023 to $136.77 billion in 2028.
- The European vodka market is expected to grow by $2.84 billion between 2023-2028,
- NBA star Dwyane Wade was seen drinking rare Bordeaux fine wine, Le Pin Pomerol 2017 and Château La Lagune 1982, on his way to a Lakers game.
Bearish News
- The no and low-alcohol beverage market is expected to grow at a 6% CAGR between 2023-2027.
- Non-alcohol beverages are growing at an accelerated 7% CAGR, as younger consumers embrace sober lifestyles.
- Constellation Brands is expecting a 7-9% decline in net sales and a 6-8% drop in operating income.
- The Indian spirits market is bracing for a mixed performance in 2024.
- Smaller companies are expected to outshine larger players.
- Dry January gains traction in the workplace.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Join us in Mexico next month
There are [TODO – how many?] spots left on our investor trip to Tequila in February. Join us, won’t you?
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” Blu-ray release sparked a buying frenzy, selling out on Amazon and fetching $200 on eBay.
- ‘Friends’ and ‘American Idol’ collectibles are gaining steam.
- Items like a ‘Friends’ instant coffee canister and ‘American Idol’ Keurig machine are becoming sought-after.
- The Golden Globe Foundation awarded $5 million in grants to 96 organizations, supporting underserved communities, educational institutions, film restoration, and global journalism efforts.
- Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz argues that training AI on copyrighted materials should be considered fair use.
Bearish News
- Alamo Drafthouse experienced a “nationwide” outage on New Year’s Eve due to an issue with Sony’s projectors, affecting their ability to play films.
- MLC’s investment of millions in black box royalties raises concerns from Congress.
- The Hipgnosis Songs fund reduced its valuation by another 9.2%.
- Taiwan’s International Co-funding Program (TICP) has been suspended, signaling a shift towards mainstream film projects.
- Spotify has withdrawn its support from two French music festivals, Les Francofolies de la Rochelle and Le Printemps de Bourges.
- This comes in response to France’s proposed ‘streaming tax’.
- Britney Spears has announced that she will “never return” to music.
- India’s music publishing industry faces challenges due to a copyright compliance rate of just 1.2%.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Are Blu-Rays hot?
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- The Royal Mint reports a 7% increase in customers buying bullion.
- The Royal Mint is also turning silver from X-ray films into jewelry.
- Oklahoma is considering establishing a state gold and silver depository, allowing residents to store and transact with precious metals.
- Kazakhstan plans to auction nearly 70 precious metal deposits, aiming to attract investors and bolster its mining sector.
- Dundee Precious Metals and Exyn Technologies demonstrate how autonomous drones can enhance cave monitoring and mapping in the mining industry.
Bearish News
- The Bloomberg Commodities Index declined nearly 10% in 2023.
- Energy commodities, base metals, and grains experiencing notable price drops.
- Real rates could pose a threat to the bullish outlook in precious metals markets.
- Walmart and JCPenney are expanding their lab-grown diamond assortments.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Take a trip to Kazakhstan
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Rare books from the likes of Agatha Christie and Arthur Conan Doyle are gaining traction among collectors.
- A pair of books formerly owned by Charlie Watts fetched up to $226,555 at auction.
- A unique collection of Michael Jordan’s game-worn sneakers, known as the “Dynasty Collection,” is expected to sell for between $7 million to $10 million,
- Tom Brady’s one-of-a-kind autographed Topps baseball card, representing the Montreal Expos, could sell for over $250,000.
- Korean Pokémon TCG cards are emerging as a valuable niche for collectors.
- Vintage housewares like IKEA and Farberware are surging on eBay.
- HiBid’s auction platform surpassed $2.1 billion in sales in 2023, with nearly 35 million lots sold
Bearish News
- The Air Jordan 11 ‘Silver Anniversary’ model failed to achieve the legendary status of its counterparts.
- Travis Scott’s new signature Jordan shoe faces mixed reactions from sneakerheads, questioning its appeal without the rapper’s branding.
- Climate change is affecting the comic book industry.
- Catastrophic weather events have led to a decline in the number of back issues.
- A multi-state sports card thief was apprehended in Montgomery, with over $2,000 worth of cards stolen from a Target.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Put your comics and other valuables somewhere safe from fires and floods.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Hacked accounts with gold checkmarks from X (formerly Twitter) are being sold on the dark web.
- Prices range from $1,200 to $2,000 based on brand value and reach.
- The .AI domain market saw significant growth in 2023.
- Sales reached $5.5 million.
- Experts think 2024 may exceed $10 million.
- Real-world asset tokenization is expected to have a breakthrough year in 2024.
- The domain name Plunge.com sold for a staggering $250,000.
- The ENS token saw a 50% surge in value after Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin highlighted its importance.
Bearish News
- Google Domains and Squarespace experienced a notable drop in new registrations, reporting a 25% decrease.
- ICANN is considering extending its Expected Standards of Behavior to individuals’ speech outside of ICANN activities, sparking discussions on free speech.
- Airbnb and eBay will now share more user transaction details with HMRC, tightening the tax net on online sellers in the UK.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Find a way to get a gold check on Twitter.
That’s all for this week
If you want to add topics like real estate, startups, crypto, PE, VC, luxury items, music and film investing, collectibles, art, wine and spirits, and/or vintage autos news, click this button. 👇
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- This issue of Alts Cafe was brought to you by our friends at RAD AI
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
