Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
If you missed it, make sure to check out Stefan’s breathless telling of our investor trip to Jalisco, Mexico a couple weeks ago.
And if you want to be a part of our next journey, make sure to apply to Altea.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: A “Vanishingly Low” Recession Risk
- Real Estate: A Record Bar Sale In Nashville
- Startups: Blackstone Bought Rover
- Private Credit: Harvard Raises $1.65 Billion In Debt
- Crypto: JPMorgan Thinks The Pump Won’t Last
- NFTs: Dubai’s Police Launch NFTs (again)
- Art: A $1.9 Million Banksy Sale
- Vintage Autos: Classic Cars Are Big In New Zealand
- Coins: A Civil War Coin Eyes A $100,000 Sale
- Farmland: Soybean Prices Are Down
- Luxury: Short Interest in LVMH Has Declined
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: €337,000 Bordeaux
- Film & Music: Massive Growth For Paramount+
- Precious Metals: A Platinum Crisis In South Africa
- Collectibles: Elton John’s Boots Sell For $90,000
- Websites: GoDaddy Launched Airo
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Wells Fargo’s chief macro strategist sees the risk of a US recession as “vanishingly low.”
- Personal income rose by $233.7 billion (1.0%) in January, with consumer spending up by $43.9 billion (0.2%).
- HSBC Life issued a record-high $250 million life insurance policy.
- China’s digital coupon system boosted consumer spending as intended.
- Amazon expanded its Innovation Fund.
- Brazil joined the world’s largest climate finance alliance.
Bearish News
- Citigroup cuts 286 jobs in New York.
- The IMF might need to increase its loan to Egypt as the country’s economy worsens due to the Israel-Gaza conflict and Suez Canal disruptions.
- Hedge funds turn ultra-bearish on US gas due to oversupply.
- Jobless claims rose to 215,000, exceeding expectations.
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman “is in no rush to cut US interest rates”
What are the odds?
The big mover over the last week has been a sharp decline in forecast GDP for Q1. It’s still 20bps higher than the Fed’s estimates, though.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
ALTS 1 Fund news:
We’ve had a small win — currently in the process of shifting two works of art for nearly 3x after less than three months.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- D.R. Horton’s stock soared 141% since June 2022.
- The UK is poised to spearhead a European real estate surge, drawing $13 billion from US investors.
- Manila now leads as the top luxury property market globally, with a 26.3% annual increase in high-end real estate prices.
- Jeff Bezos-backed Arrived is expanding into new cities, managing over $128 million in properties.
- Suffolk Technologies secured $110 million for ConTech and PropTech investments.
- Nashville’s Lucky Bastard Saloon is listed for $66.5 million, potentially breaking records at over $4,200 per square foot.
Bearish News
- Analysts expect a 20% decline in the multifamily housing market in 2024.
- In Seattle, commercial real estate sales dropped 64% last year, the lowest since 2011.
- The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold a NYC office stake for $1 (not a typo).
- Rocket Companies will close Rocket Pro Originate.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Time to learn more about the Philippines 🇵🇭
Startups
Bullish News
- Blackstone completed its $2.3 billion acquisition of Rover.
- GitLab’s stock jumped over 16% YTD.
- Spain’s tech sector is now worth €93 billion, a 3.6x increase since 2018. Vamos!
- Webull’s SPAC merger values it at $7.3 billion. [Ed: I’ve done 0 research but this feels insane]
- The Startup Act was introduced to boost US entrepreneurs with more training and resources.
- Ginkgo Bioworks acquired three startups, related to gene therapy and AI drug discovery.
- The Financial Times launched FT Ventures to support high-growth companies.
- Newcleo plans to raise €1 Billion for its small modular reactors that use radioactive waste, advancing sustainable energy.
Bearish News
- Ark Invest sold shares in Coinbase, Nvidia, and Robinhood.
- VC funding for Black-owned startups dropped 71% nationally and 79% in Atlanta in 2023.
- VCs are investing in startups that help close other businesses (very meta).
- Lordstown Motors settled with the SEC for $25.5 million after facing charges of misleading investors.
- Eventbrite’s value dropped by a third post-Ticketfly merger issues, falling below its IPO price.
How to invest in startups right now:
Don’t mislead investors.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Kirkoswald Asset Management nears a deal to buy EMSO, aiming for a $13 billion hedge fund merger.
- Crystal Capital Partners grew 18.62% in assets under management in 2023.
- The GP stakes market is set for a 2024 comeback.
- EQT launched a record $24 billion fund.
- GFL Environmental Inc. expanded its secondary offering to 21 million shares.
- Thoma Bravo raised its bid for Everbridge to $35 per share, valuing it at $1.8 billion, a 47% premium.
- APM Human Services’ stock hit a 3-month peak after CVC’s $1.2 billion improved offer.
- Harvard issued $1.65 billion in bonds.
Bearish News
- US private capital investment in China hit a five-year low.
- In 2023, private equity investments in India dropped by 53.6%.
- Amid a weak IPO market, Asia’s private equity firms are turning to “continuation funds” for exits, a controversial strategy.
- Carlyle’s direct lending chief departed.
- Francesco de Ferrari left UBS after the Credit Suisse merger.
- The SEC’s new rules harm emerging fund managers.
- Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman’s income fell by 29% in 2023.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
I think Schwarzman will survive the paycut.
Crypto
Here’s what you need to know:
Bullish News
- Bitcoin crossed $60,000 for the first time in over 2 years. Then it crossed $65k.
- Grayscale lobbied the SEC for approval for Bitcoin ETF options.
- Gemini agreed with NYDFS on a $1.1 billion settlement, ensuring full asset return to Earn customers after the Genesis bankruptcy.
- Bitfufu announced plans to go public after a merger with Arisz Acquisition Corp.
- VC Kavita Gupta is bullish on Modular Blockchains boosting Institutional Adoption.
- Taiko raised $15 million for its ‘Ethereum-Equivalent ZK Rollup’
Bearish News
- Bitcoin holdings by miners reached a new low.
- HTX, formerly Huobi, canceled its bid for a Hong Kong exchange license.
- SBF’s attorney criticized Sam’s 100-year sentence proposal as excessively harsh.
- JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will fall to $42,000 after the April halving.
- Binance’s new CEO is having a hard time.
- Vanguard is still avoiding crypto.
- Vitalik Buterin thinks DeFi’s Total Value Locked (TVL) is a misleading indicator.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Replace TVL with a better valuation metric.
NFTs
Bullish News
- VanEck launched SegMint, an NFT marketplace with a novel “Lock & Key Model.”
- Solana’s NFT market hit a $5 billion milestone off the back of the currency’s steep increase.
- Dubai Police’s second NFT collection attracted 22.91 million global registrations.
- Taki Games and Two3 Labs launched Puzzle Smoofs.
- Crossmint acquired Winter and introduced a cross-chain payments solution.
- BinaryX introduced Project Matthew, a space city-building game with ERC-404 NFTs for land ownership.
Bearish News
- The GameStop Memes project’s $4 million presale drew criticism for failing to deliver tokens.
- Yuga Labs restricted trading of its NFTs to royalty-respecting platforms.
- OpenSea’s NFT sales plunged to a three-year low in February.
- The NBA’s NFT giveaway was exploited due to a security flaw, leading to unfair token minting.
- SoLVBL Solutions Inc. faced allegations of misleading investors with false NFT deal claims.
- The World of Women (WoW) Gala 2024 did not go according to plan.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Tons of new projects to explore. Pick one and get your hands dirty.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Banksy’s Flower Thrower Triptych, previously part of Elton John’s collection, sold for $1.9 million.
- Old Masters artworks outperformed Modern Art in 2023, according to the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index.
- In 2023, 75% of galleries at art fairs attracted new clients.
- Denver police recovered stolen bronze artwork from the Martin Luther King Jr. memorial.
- Giovanni Bellini’s “Lamentation over the Dead Christ” exhibition triggered a tourist boom in Milan.
- Art investments posted an 11% gain in 2023, outshining the broader luxury sector.
Bearish News
- The Kentucky House’s decision to regulate Capitol statues sparked debate on political interference in art.
- Over six million visitors annually damage the Sistine Chapel’s frescos, requiring substantial restoration efforts.
- The €700,000 spent on ‘Bar Roma’ sparked controversy.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Sell your work to famous Pianists.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- New Zealand’s classic vehicle sector’s economic impact hit $16.5 billion.
- A 1937 Mercedes-Benz 540K reemerged in Mumbai after 40 years, post-restoration.
- Woodside Credit surpassed $3 billion in classic car financing.
- Barrett-Jackson’s Scottsdale auction raised $1 million for charity.
- A 2015 Porsche 918 Spyder Weissach, in Gulf Oil livery, is expected to fetch up to $3 million.
- DuPont REGISTRY and Prive launched a new car collector club in Bahrain.
Bearish News
- A Longmont man pleaded guilty to a vintage car fraud that swindled $1 million from investors for fictitious Chevrolet Camaros.
- Porsche purists aren’t happy about the upcoming auction of a RWB-modified 1995 Porsche 911 Carrera.
- The Plymouth Prowler’s high price and V-6 engine faced major criticism from Jay Leno.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Get a loan from Woodside Credit.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Buyer activity is holding strong based on recent coin show data.
- A Civil War gold coin from the Trompeter collection could sell for over $100,000.
- An ultra rare 1699 5 Guineas William III Elephant and Castle gold coin, rated MS64, was just discovered.
- The UK honored George Michael with a personalized collectible coin.
Bearish News
- The US Mint botched the execution and release of its American Innovation dollars.
- Houston, Texas, faces backlash over releasing a commemorative coin during a water-price crisis.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Next time, save the collectible announcements for after the water crisis fades.
Farmland
Bullish News
- Farmland Partners Inc. secured a 20% rent increase on renewed leases in 2023.
- Rhode Island’s agriculture sector is doing great.
- A Sioux County, Iowa, farm fetched $29,600 per acre, near the state record.
- An Illinois farmland auction averaged $14,984 per acre.
- Farmland Partners reported a 160% net income increase in 2023.
- Huron County’s farmland values jumped 24% in 2023.
Bearish News
- A Garfield County farmland auction failed to sell 550 acres due to low bids.
- Iowa lost over 500,000 acres of farmland between 2017 and 2022.
- US soybean prices dropped below $12.00 in early February.
- Over 100,000 acres of California’s cropland are suffering from flooding.
- Slower growth is expected in European farmland values due to reduced EU subsidies and supply increases.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Do your projections account for major flooding?
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- India’s ultra-rich now allocate 17% of their wealth to luxury items like watches, art, and jewelry.
- LVMH eyes the acquisition of Paris Match to boost its media presence.
- Macy’s pivots to luxury, expanding Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury by 20%.
- Cartier’s sustainable luxury efforts earned accolades from the McWhorter Family Trust for its ESG initiatives.
- Prada saw major earnings growth in Asia.
Bearish News
- 57% of luxury consumers plan to cut or maintain spending.
- Kering experienced a 25.4% drop in price returns over the past year.
- Saks’ fourth-quarter sales fell 8%.
- A Chanel boutique in South Korea closed in protest over a Gucci pop-up.
- Critics are having a field day over Burberry’s £690 Rubber Highland Mules.
- Over half of luxury watch claims involve fraud.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Seriously, take a look at the new Burberry ’rain’ boots…
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- A Sotheby’s auction for Bordeaux’s Cité du Vin raised €337,000, exceeding its €200,000 goal.
- The Canadian government announced a $177 million investment in the wine industry.
- Jack Daniel’s 12-Year-Old Batch 2 was well received by critics
- A 20-acre Napa Valley property in the Stags Leap District, famous for Cabernet Sauvignon, is listed for $12.5 million.
- Dublin’s wine scene is outpacing its beer culture.
- Dubbed a “Masterpiece,” Macallan revealed The Reach, an 81-year-old whisky in Nigeria.
Bearish News
- Retail wine sales dropped 2% in revenue and 4% in volume in December.
- Kentucky’s bourbon bill imposes sales limitations that could threaten the vintage spirits market.
- US on-premise spirits sales fell 3.3% in value in 2023.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Plan a wine trip to Ireland 🇮🇪
Music and Film
Bullish News
- BSEG launched a share offering at below-market rates to develop a Film Funding Platform.
- Warner Music and Tips Industries expanded their partnership, adding over 30,000 songs in 23 languages.
- Warner Music Group introduced a superfan app to strengthen artist-fan relationships.
- SeatGeek debuted Smart Pricing, using machine learning to maximize ticket resale profits.
- The Sundance Institute and Cinépolis partnered to host the first Sundance Film Festival in Mexico City.
- Paramount+ added 4.1 million subscribers last quarter, hitting 67.5 million total.
Bearish News
- Don Henley went to court over the rights to Eagles’ lyrics.
- Amazon MGM was sued for copyright infringement over its ‘Road House’ remake. [Ed: I hope this kills the movie]
- Warner Bros. Discovery stopped merger discussions with Paramount Global as shares hit a 52-week low.
- TikTok began removing UMPG’s catalog, affecting up to 80% of its popular content.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
The BSEG opportunity is an interesting option for Accredited Investors.
Precious Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Emerald Holding reported a 17% revenue increase and a 67% rise in adjusted EBITDA in 2023.
- Copper Fox Metals saw insider stock purchases reach CA$1.28 million.
- Vista Gold received a $7 million payment from Wheaton Precious Metals for its Mt Todd project.
- During the 2024 Chinese New Year, gold sales in Shanghai topped $141 million, up 14% from the previous year.
- Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. boosted its A-Mark Precious Metals holdings by 48.9%.
- CMC Metals plans to raise $1.2 million for exploration.
Bearish News
- This Russian metals tycoon’s assets were nationalized by Putin.
- Copper treatment charges in China reached a decade low, indicating a potential oversupply.
- South African platinum miners are in their deepest crisis in decades.
- Diamond sales at Debswana dropped 25.1% in 2023..
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Don’t keep your gems in Russia.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- AMC’s collectible popcorn buckets are poppin’ 🍿
- Dune, Mean Girls, and Wonka Buckets were especially popular
- A garbage man rescued World War I memorabilia from a landfill.
- Elton John’s silver leather platform boots sold for $94,500.
- Sports memorabilia startup KolleXor.com secured a $3.5 million valuation.
- A gold LEGO mask found at Goodwill sold for over $18,000.
Bearish News
- Adidas sold another batch of leftover Yeezys.
- Comic store graphic novel sales dropped 11.9% in 2023.
- Analysts don’t expect Trump’s sneakers to stay valuable for very long.
- A Babe Ruth card sold for $2.8 million short of its expected price. The item was formerly on the now-defunct Collectable platform.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Check the toys aisle at Goodwill
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Acasia Ventures invested $1.5 million in tappi to boost over 10,000 SMEs in Africa with digital commerce solutions.
- GoDaddy launched Airo, an AI platform enhancing small businesses’ online presence through website design and marketing tools.
- LinkDaddy released a domain authority tool.
- Fleek introduced a platform bridging Web2 and Web3, simplifying ENS and DNS domain integration.
- Five new top-level domains, including .food and .vana, launched in early access.
- Hub.xyz sold for €31,900.
Bearish News
- Thrasio declared bankruptcy.
- Programmatic advertising risks burning $2.6 billion annually by funding fake news sites.
- European ccTLDs saw a mere 1.4% growth in 2023.
- Zulily began liquidating after closing in December 2023.
- Australians and New Zealanders lost billions to the Savvy Seahorse scam via Facebook ads.
- GlobalBlock’s domain-blocking service sparked free speech concerns.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Lots of fun to be had with “.food” TLDs
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
